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Old 12-17-2010, 06:43 PM   #624
Raiders Army
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Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: The Black Hole
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
OK, so going off this list

Saldana-Casts first stone on DT D1, D2 switches off Darth and onto PF, both known villagers. Don't really see a point in a wolf doing this since either way they get a villager lynched.

Martin D-D1 casts an early second vote for DT, D2 casts 3rd vote for PF, putting him 2 votes ahead of RA and breaking a tie with DV, who at the time Could it be a ploy to protect RA and set up an early DV/ PF showdown?

Chief Rum-D1 CR puts out a "self preservation" vote even though there were only 4 total votes cast but he had to leave for the day. He pushed DT up by 2 at that point over PF, both villagers. Don't see a wolf pulling that move early D1. D2 votes DV creating a tie with PF and DV, both villagers. This move looks bad considering both are villagers, any way you slice it you can spin that move to look bad. Leaning towards trusting CR for now

Lathum- LAte vote on DT D1, late vote on PF D2. Could be wolfy based on the late votes.

theJuggler-Votes DT late D1 putting it pretty much out of reach using the argumenthe didn't want a tie. D2 unvotes PAss and votes PF, putting more distance between PF and DV. Don't see a wolf making this move, really no point there since he knows as a wolf they both are villagers and it makes him look bad.

CoffeeWarlord-D1 unvotes Saldana and votes PF, kind of a strange move, especially since we know PF is now a villager and Sal and CW are both unknowns. Could the D1 Sal vote be to attempt to buy trust? D2 early jump on PF and leaves it there. Something doesn't sit right with me about him. It also seems like he was trying to play the helpful villager early.

RA-no D1 vote-D2 late vote on PF doesn't give us much to go with. The connection that interests me is a potential one between him and MartinD

So that is all the people with votes on known villagers both days.

The others

Danny- D1 casts vote for Saldana, making him the 4th candidate. Claims he isn't a fan of voting DT because he has 3 votes already. Also doesn't want to vote CR or PF, no idea why not. Instead he goes Saldana. Now we know PF and DT are both villagers, could he possible have been protecting CR? Or was he bringing in Sal, confident he likely doesn't get lynched but can buy trust down the road? D2 he goes Saldana and sticks with it despite there being no traction. Not sure if he came back to the thread prior to deadline. all in all not looking like great moves from Danny.

The Jackal- Late vote on Sal D1 bringing us closer to a tie, a very bad thing. If Sal and Jackal are both wolves this is actually a brilliant move for Jackal. A tie ensures Sal isn't lynched, and eithre PF or CR are. A DT lynch and Jackals vote is completely justifiable, a Sal lynch would require a come from behing and would make Jackal very trusted. D2 votes DV, claiming he doesn't want to nail PF, and brings DV a notch closer. At that time RA, Pass and Sal also had votes. Something about him doesn't seem right to me.


Autumn- D1 vote on an unknown Sal after unvoting DV. I don't see this as a wolf play, why switch your vote from a known villager when you could easily leave it buried there. D2 casts an early vote for PF, a known villager and leaves it there. Nothing to fishy here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Going off my analysis the people who look worst are JAckal, CW, Danny, and MartinD.

Now of that group they were all on eithe DT or Sal D1 except CW. I have to wonder if the wolves would leave him on an island like that or if all the wolves were on DT/Sal D1.

For now I am tossing CW out.

Based on my analysis I am gpoing to

VOTE JACKAL

These two. He stayed on Jackal the whole time when CW could've been a viable lynch.
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