[JPhillips]

Biden's main appeal, especially with African-American voters, is his electability. If he wins Iowa, doesn't he solidify that argument to a great degree? He almost certainly won't win NH, but I doubt that hurts him, and he may even get a boost with a second-place finish. If he wins in Iowa, he'll probably win SC by a big margin. Super Tuesday has a lot of southern states, and he'l again do well in those.

Now if Biden loses Iowa, the race will be wide open. His appeal right now is almost entirely on electability and if that collapses he might be out of the race after a poor Super Tuesday showing.

For me the big questions are how long are both Sanders and Warrren in the race, and when one of thems drops out, where does their support go?