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hoopsguy · 01-19-2010, 08:36 AM

PB, you teach math, correct? I weep for our youth

Seriously, you are including an option in your math that cannot be realized. The "fake seer, hoops is a wolf" is not an option as I would have scanned villager in that case. Since he is saying I scanned wolf there are only two options.

You can argue that those options are weighted equally - each has an equal 1/6 chance of coming to Darth Vilus. So that would be 50/50.

Or you can argue that there although there is a 50/50 shot of DV getting seer or fake seer as a night action, the chances of scanning a wolf are not equal in a game with more villagers than wolves.

Either way, the odds are certainly not above 50%. I'll argue this one as a math question until I'm blue in the face in the postgame thread if people want to return to the topic when I'm no longer considered an interested party.

01-19-2010, 08:36 AM	#1232
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	PB, you teach math, correct? I weep for our youth Seriously, you are including an option in your math that cannot be realized. The "fake seer, hoops is a wolf" is not an option as I would have scanned villager in that case. Since he is saying I scanned wolf there are only two options. You can argue that those options are weighted equally - each has an equal 1/6 chance of coming to Darth Vilus. So that would be 50/50. Or you can argue that there although there is a 50/50 shot of DV getting seer or fake seer as a night action, the chances of scanning a wolf are not equal in a game with more villagers than wolves. Either way, the odds are certainly not above 50%. I'll argue this one as a math question until I'm blue in the face in the postgame thread if people want to return to the topic when I'm no longer considered an interested party.