Quote:
Originally Posted by timmae
Ok, so we are at 4:2:1 (good, wolf, sorc) right now. Assuming a N0 clear and a N1 wolf/not wolf we'd be at 2 goods (N0 clear and the seer) and a known 3rd (wolf/not wolf). But... assuming worst case the N0 was chief or brit and the N1 was not wolf (not necessarily good as it could be sorc) we could have only 1 full clear which is the seer and 1 not wolf vision.
I assume that the sorc will not announce until they hit the seer which gives us 1 more day for the seer to claim as they would have announced already, right? Once the seer claims then the sorc counterclaims as they are no longer useful and it creates FUD. Then it's a who do we believe situation.
Essentially the wolves have a 1 in 4 shot of hitting the seer tonight. Are we ok gambling on a 25% chance for another vision? Worst case we'd be at 2:2:1 tomorrow which would really suck if we have no information.
Would the wolves just claim and then hit a 3-2 vote for the lynch and a NK to win it? Sorc would just vote with the wolves, right? I think shoveler mentioned this before. I'd like to prevent this tragedy but it doesn't look promising right now. We must hit evil this lynch, right?
I think if we have the seer as a clear and 2 other living not wolf's then a claim may be worthwhile here. Obviously a wolf hit we would have heard by now, right?
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I've been trying to think about how we could use the vote count tonight to determine alignments, but I'm not seeing a reliable way. There are 5 uninformed people versus two informed wolves. So they only real way to know we are voting poorly is if someone ends up with 6 votes, which is unlikely to happen.
But otherwise, yes we need to hit an evil today, and mysfit is correct the wolves have a 1 in 5 shot of hitting the seer, but they also have a 1 in 5 shot of hitting the sorcerer with the night kill.