Quote:
Originally Posted by Butter
Cincy is a fringe top-25 team, they were just behind UCF in the preseason poll in their division. Cincy won at UCLA last year. I am not sure how they appear weaker than last year, as it looks like 10-3/11-2 is expected again, with a preseason rank of #34 and more growth expected under their new coach.
Chip Kelly will be looking to get off on a better footing this year, but I don't see where their team has improved a ton roster-wise.
Seems like the line is moving towards UCLA, but I'm not really sure why. Even at least one UCLA fan site I looked at has this chalked up as a UC win.
Most sites I'm looking at have UCLA predicted to finish around 5-7 or so, that shouldn't be good enough to win on a long road trip, even with revenge as a factor, against a top tier Group of 5 team.
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I don't know how this game will go. You very well may be right. But I would not bet this game. Here is why:
1. Cincy had a great season last year-- against one of the worst schedules in the country. One of the stories I read on Bruin Report Online said they were around maybe the 50th best team in the country last year when considering the schedule and metrics and what not. Same site suggested as many as eight teams on UCLA's schedule were better than the best team on UC's schedule.
2. They return most of their D, which is a very good thing. But they lost their three best D Linemen, by far. The backups who are now starting in their place did little to distinguish themselves.
3. Why is the D Line important here? UCLA returns four of five starters from a very good O Line, and they finished last year running the ball very well. They ran all over USC and Stanford.
4. The game last year versus Cincy was Game #1 of Chip Kelly and he was trying to implement completely new systems. So the team was already behind the eight ball with that. Then they lost their starting QB Wilton Speight halfway through the game, forcing a true freshman in Dorian Thompson Robinson to come in. In his first college game. Ever.
5. From Game 5 on last year, UCLA had around a top 30 offense. In addition to the USC win and 40+ points versus Stanford, they also put a big scare on Washington and blasted Cal by 30. Almost everyone from that offense is back.
6. The defense was a major concern through most of the season last year, but there is a lot of talent there, especially in the secondary. On the D Line, UCLA is starting two massive human beings in Mafi and Ogbonnia who together have about 720 lbs. The line is deep, huge and experienced. UC lost a good portion of their O Line to graduation, so it may be extremely difficult for them to gain any traction versus that line.
So why wouldn't I just bet UCLA then. Two sides to every coin.
1. UCLA's D needs to prove it's better. It had pass rush issues last year and it's best PR is suspended for this game. There is some hope in some new faces or in the staff being more aggressive with a very good secondary, but I'll believe it when I see it. I think UC will have early success running the ball if they run over tackles, but not up the middle. I also think that they will have less success as the game goes on because their line is going to be very fatigued vs the huge D Line. But with a struggling pass rush, I don't think UCLA gets to IC's QB much and if you stay upright long enough, you can throw on any secondary. Does UC have the QB who makes throws? My understanding is their offense was and still is mediocre.
2. The one O Line spot UCLA is replacing? LT. And with a true freshman to boot, thanks to an injury to the projected starter. A very talented true FR, but still a FR. Does UC have the pass rush to take advantage? They also lost their best PR DE.
3. DTR did very well at times last year, but also had poor games. He is considered very talented, and most QBs make their biggest jumps from FR to SO years. But Cincy's back 7 is very solid and experienced. I think UCLA will try to run the ball a lot (and I suspect they will be good at it), but at some point DTR will need to make some throws. Jury is out.
4. UCLA's top RB Joshua Kelley is a monster... but he missed most of training camp with a knee to knee contact injury and is still not appearing to be truly 100%. There are other talented backs on UCLA besides Kelley but none of them have come close so far to what he was doing last year (including over 200 yards vs SC).
5. The previously mentioned obvious factors. It's in Cincy. It's a long road trip for UCLA. Cincy is a well coached team returning most of its starters (just like UCLA).
Honestly, I would not bet this game, not with a line at a FG. There are safer games to go after.