[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Here's a sobering graphic from Italy:



Italy Coronavirus: 15,113 Cases and 1,016 Deaths - Worldometer

I have to say even though I lean on the side this will be really bad, that's a misleading graphic. It really should have included the other one which the ongoing cases and the # of people who are critical vs in a mild condition. Presumably the vast majority if not all of those 11,686 in mild condition are going to survive, they are just symptomatic right now.

And yeah, 1000 deaths is nothing to sneeze at, but it's obviously nowhere near a 45% mortality rate that graphic suggests. If you die from this you presumably die rather quickly whereas the recovery is at least 14 days.

EDIT - also worth noting that the worldwide mild vs serious/critical % on ongoing cases (90/10) from that site is actually slightly worse than Italy (91/9), so I imagine that's another sign that the overall stats from Italy will normalize, and it's actually a pretty compelling argument for quarantining and avoiding large gatherings here - to avoid the huge peak that overwhelmed hospitals in Italy that led to so many deaths once the overall numbers got serious.