Quote:
Originally Posted by Edward64
You're betting on the manager to be able to see & bet on future trends, technologies and ultimately companies. If you have faith in her, then the ship has not sailed yet because there is always new up-and-coming disruptors.
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I remember when I was in law school around 2000, there was a firm out of Boston (I forget the name) that focused 100% on tech. It was doing gangbusters--taking payment in stock options, etc. But it had no balance in its client base. And the obvious question for them was "what are you going to do when the tech bubble bursts?" And their response was "We aren't into tech. We are into whatever is hot. And when the next big thing arrives, we will be into that."
That firm no longer exists.
For every Warren Buffett, there are 10,000 people/funds/companies who got lucky and got onto a trend before it took off and made a bunch of money and who mistakenly thought that it was skill and not random chance that put them in that position.