[MIJB#19]

General Manager Notes: Another win, but...
We're still on pace for one of our 5 worst seasons.

Wait.

One of our 5 worst seasons. Let that come to you. Then look at the 53 players on roster, look at the guys that we actually had to cut before pre-season action started, guys that arguably can contribute in this league and didn't even make our list of 60 pre-season players. Look at the top-notch secondary. Look at the promising Braden Brady, ever improving Clayton Jackson and still solid Daquan Espino as our linebackers. The elite pass rush ensemble around our tremendous defensive tackle duo. The highly talented and cohesive offensive line. That guy that we call Theo and remains to be a top5 skill position player in this league. That running back duo.

And then you realize that despite all that, our quarterbacks have made a mistake or two too many and cost us a bunch of games. But that's not all of it, we somehow completely sucked in those games at Gothenburg and against Tucker. Indescribable how bad we were, despite the talent.

And today, against the Fairbanks Northstars? Our last hopes on a wild card for the playoffs were on the line and we kept them alive. We won 12-9, as the score line already suggests, a game without touchdowns. Our longest drive was a gain of 45 yards. Theirs a gain of 50 yards. Enough said.

Let's give the credits to the defenses, to stay positive. We gave up 16 rushing yards on 20 carries, indeed, a 0.8 yards per carry average. In return, our two running backs and one scrambling quarterback all gained roughly 40 yards to shift the balance into our direction and to overcome Brandon Bell's lowsy 123 yards passing.

Part of the story possibly was the injury to our left tackle Nathan Hadinger. Gets little credit for it in the league, but we see him as an elite left tackle, the type of guy that gives a quarterback the time he needs to avoid the turnovers. (Which makes you wonder even more how on earth we're fourth in most giveaways). Losing Hadinger is actually a case for keeping Moe Sheldon on the bench and stick with Bell or even consider Francisco Farley, as both are more capable in avoiding the pass rushers.

Fair enough, at least we won. Which can't be said about our three division rivals. Which effectively still clinched the division for the Gothenburg Giants as they still needed to win (or tie) today, or see Paris not win, to divert the losing tie-breakers situation if both end up with a 9-7 regular season record. That's settled now.

Standings:
1. Gothenburg 9-3*
2. Paris 5-8
3. Maassluis 5-8
4. Bordeaux 4-9
* division champions

Okay, let's go crazy for a second or 150 and look at the wild card race, excluding the eliminated teams on record.

Wild card race:
1. San Antonio 9-3-1
2. Gothenburg 9-4*
3. Tucker 9-4
4. North Plainfield 8-5*
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5. Fort Wayne 9-4
6. Orlando 8-5
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7. Snapfinger 7-6
8. Houston 6-7
9. Paris 5-8
10. Maassluis 5-8
11. Harlem 5-8
* division champion

And then I looked at the tie-breakers and it becomes clear that we won't win a tie-breaker straight up against Orlando as they will have the common games tie-breaker (they'll be 2-3 against Houston, North Plainfield, Paris and Tucker, we'll be 1-4). But there's also Snapfinger to consider and if they end up in second place with an 8-8 record while only winning in week 16, we'll be losing that same common games tie-breaker to them (they'll be 4-1 against Bordeaux, Houston, Harlem and Tucker, we'll be 2-3). Which means we'll need Harlem and or Houston to break the tie in both situations.

We can quickly strike out the situation where Harlem joins Snapfinger and us. As Snapfinger and us swept Harlem, they'll be ignored first. Snapfinger beating Houston and Houston beating us means nothing, because we didn't play Snapfinger, which means common games will be ignored and strength of victory will be up next. Our situation is dire, as the best record of a team we beat is 5-8, while beating Paris, Colorado and Gothenburg up next will add at best 26 wins (which isn't even the best case scenario for us) to our current total of 20.5 for a maximum of 56.5. Houston will be 59.5 at worst, Snapfinger will be 45 at worst and Harlem 44 at worst and Orlando 44.5 at worst. So yeah, Houston, please stay away by going 1-1-1 at best in the last thee games.

So, in essence, we can get there with 3 wins, with 3 losses from Orlando, at most 1 tie for Snapfinger, Houston not winning their remaining 3 games and Harlem's result not making a difference.

The Solecismic Playoffs Probabilities calculator gave us a <0.1% on the first try, nothing on the next few, but clearly it's still better than no chance at all.

What to do next? Try to save face, that's what's next. 3 games remaining to brush away that -67 points differential. -54 is our fifth worst for now, so getting ahead of that is kind of not so terribly bad. The next progress would be at -35, which is already a pretty steep hill, requiring us to win all three remaining games with 11 or more points. For a worst season we need -14 to tie the -81 record. Yeah, that sounds actually more likely...

So it goes. We're alive, but barely kicking. But we'll keep on trying, like we always do.