Quote:
Originally Posted by Solecismic
It's true. And 7 of 11 since the rule was changed. The average number of overtime possessions in the postseason is 2.0 since the rule changed. And 2.7 during the regular season, which is quite a difference.
Small sample size aside, I wonder why that is. The average score headed into overtime is 24.9 points per team postseason, 23.6 regular season.
So... 7 of 11 in the playoffs (.636) and 28 of 152 in the regular season (.184). That is really strange, to be honest.
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I have a half baked theory and I think the defensive strategies of both the Bills and the Bucs on the last drive of the 4th quarters of their respective games illustrate my thinking. Whether the thinking is right or not is another thing.
Defensively on the first possession of overtime, the only thing that beats you is a field goal. I could see a defense playing a bit more conservatively and forcing the offense to drive down the field little by little. Either the defense will stop them altogether or if they do get into the red zone, the field is compressed enough to be more aggressive to force the offense to not score a TD. The field goal is almost considered a given. I think this was the Bills' thinking on the last drive of the 4th quarter on Sunday. Though not in overtime, the TD was the only thing that was stopping that game from going to overtime.
On the other hand, I could see a defense being super aggressive to provide their offense with a short field or even better to get a turnover and end the game themselves.* Of course that leaves them open to the big play TD to end the game. Cue Todd Bowles blitzing at the end of that game. Obviously a field goal could beat them but I think you get my point
Playoff offenses don't have either issue to worry about. They are going all out for the TD and will only settle for a FG if they have to.
* I don't want to give up on the idea that the defenses are helpless in these situations.