1998-1999 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
#2 Florida State (13-1) vs #8 Florida (12-2)
Florida State 37 Florida 16 (FSU wins 75.2%, avg. score = FSU 32.8 FLA 24.0)
Chris Weinke passed for two touchdowns and Jeff Chaney rushed for two more to lead the Florida State Seminoles to a convincing 37-16 win over the Florida Gators in the national championship game. The game was a rematch of the final regular season game for both teams, also won by the Seminoles 23-12. The Gators were able to make a game of it early, taking a 7-3 lead late in the first quarter on Doug Johnson’s 3 yard touchdown pass to Taylor, capping off an 8 play, 87 yard drive. That would be the only sustained drive for Florida all night until late in the fourth quarter when the game was well out of reach. The Seminoles answered in the second quarter with a 59 yard touchdown pass from Weinke to Ron Dugans, followed by Jeff Chaney’s 2 yard rushing touchdown to put the Seminoles up 17-10 at halftime. The third quarter was all Florida State, and they all but put the game out of reach. Another Weinke touchdown pass and Chaney rushing touchdown, together with a 26 yard field goal from Sebastian Janikowski put FSU up 34-10 at the end of the period. Florida did manage to score another touchdown late in the fourth quarter on a 3 yard touchdown pass from Johnson to Travis McGriff, but the game was well out of reach. Janikowski tacked on another short field goal with 1:58 left for the 37-16 final score.
Comparison of the Actual 1999 BCS Championship to the Simulated 12-team playoff
The actual 1999 BCS Championship game was played between #1 Tennessee and #2 Florida State, with the Volunteers coming out on top 23-16. Florida State was without the services of starting quarterback Chris Weinke, who was injured in the final ACC game of the season. Weinke’s backup, sophomore Marcus Outzen was making his second career start. The Volunteers led 14-9 at halftime. They were leading 23-16 with less than 2 minutes to go in the game, when Tennessee RB Travis Henry fumbled and turned the ball over to Florida State. However, Outzen threw an errant pass that was intercepted, which sealed the victory and the national championship for the Vols.
Our 12-team playoff simulation had Florida State (albeit with a healthy Weinke) defeating arch rival Florida in a rematch of the last game of the season (also won by the Seminoles). This was also a rematch of the 1997 Sugar Bowl in the next-to-last season that the polls determined the mythical national champion. Florida was voted national champion in both of the polls after that win.
Of course, the most interesting part of our 12-team playoff simulation is Tennessee’s quarterfinal loss to Florida, knocking the Volunteers out of the playoffs. I think that was a plausible outcome for several reasons. First, although Tennessee finished the regular season 12-0, they were not a juggernaut by any means. They lost a ton of NFL talent from the ’97 team, including quarterback Peyton Manning. His replacement, Tee Martin, was much more mobile, but not a great passer or the type of guy to take a team on his shoulders. Consequently, Tennessee was expected to be good, not great going into the 1998 season.
In the first game of the season, they came from behind to beat Syracuse 34-33 on a last second field goal. The very next week, they played Florida in a much hyped home game. I went back and read through some of the archived blogs leading up to that game, and even most of the Tennessee fans seemed to recognize that Florida was the better team on paper. Tennessee went on to win in overtime 20-17, in a game where Florida turned the ball over five times and missed a short field goal in the first overtime that would have extended the game. Tennessee also won a nail-biter against Arkansas later in the season in a game they could have easily lost. Here’s an excerpt from “Football Study Hall: Now Playing: Arkansas At Tennessee (1998)” : “This truly was one of the biggest gut-punch near-upsets in college football's history. Arkansas did not luck into a lead against No. 1 Tennessee on November 14, 1998 -- they completely and totally outplayed the Vols. And then they lost anyway.”
So there were three games on that schedule that Tennessee could have potentially lost. Usually, an “elite” undefeated team goes through their schedule with maybe one close call, but certainly not three. So let’s give Tennessee credit for what they were, a very good team who took advantage of their opportunities and won all of their games, including a flawed system that rightfully put them in a “one-off” game against Florida State to determine the BCS national championship.
As for Florida knocking off Tennessee in our 12-team playoff, I tend to agree with the simulator, with the Gators winning a healthy 61.4% of the simulations. Given this second opportunity, what are the chances they’re going to self-destruct again like they did in the first game?
At the end of the day, Tennessee deserves a lot of credit for going undefeated and winning the BCS Championship. However, I think it’s unlikely that they would have won three consecutive playoff games to win a 12-team playoff. Coach Phil Fulmer was perhaps the biggest single winner from the BCS system. His national championship probably bought him an additional two or three seasons of goodwill once the program started to slip into mediocrity. He agreed to step down in 2008 (to avoid being fired). Without that win in his pocket, he almost certainly would have been shown the door earlier.