General Manager Notes: The challenges of a terrible scouting staff
Warning: this might get unimmersive.
Alright fans and readers, we go back to this ongoing off-season in memory, as we were forced to pick a new offensive coordinator and ended up with Alexander Petty. I've been on and off about his (in)ability to scout players, most prominently resulting in the downgrading of three key members of the offense, all of them entering just their second season in the league.
With the draft going on, we're slowly, but steadily finding out what this actually means for a team, specifically to the general manager - you know, the one in charge with actually signing players. Below are two player profiles, fora change I haven't rounded up or down to the nearest 5's or 10's, but will share the actual numbers provided by the OC (after all, if he sucks, what does it hurt to share, right?)
WR Desmond Houston (no interview), pick 1.13 by Houston (ha!)
Code:
My terrible scouting OC vs league average kind of
av dr -------??? 71-98 . . av dr ------???_ 64-94 (-7/-4)
gt dw -------??? 73-100. . gt dw -------??? 67-98 (-6/-2)
route --??______ 16-43 . . route ----???___ 44-74 (+28/+31)
3d ct -------??? 73-100. . 3d ct -------??? 68-98 (-5/-2)
bg pl ------??__ 55-82 . . bg pl ------???_ 56-86 (+1/+4)
coura -------??? 73-100. . coura -------??? 70-100 (-3/same)
ad bl ------??__ 57-84 . . ad bl ----???___ 37-67 (-20/-17)
pnt r -??_______ _7-34 . . pnt r ---???____ 25-55 (+18/+21)
kck r ???_______ _0-27 . . kck r ???_______ _0-30 (same/+3)
endur ----???___ 43-70 . . endur ---???____ 27-57 (-16/-13)
sp tm ------???_ 58-85 . . sp tm -----???__ 50-80 (-8/-5)
Okay, overall, this seems to be a WR that a lot of OC's liked as a WR1 prospect. Route running is up in the air (44 would be bad, 74 would be great), endurance could be an issue (27 would be a problem, 57 acceptable for a WR1).
Well, my OC has surely helped tone down the average numbers, in particular in some key skills. My OC thinks that Houston doesn't have the route running to be a WR1 type, but does have the endurance and is convinced that adjust to ball is a strength rather than a weakness (let's ignore the punt returning for a second).
What this tells me is that my scout is very much in the same uncertainty as other OC's, however, given his terribleness, it seems likely that he's misjudging route running and endurance. As it looks now, he might not be off by just 30 points in route running, he could be off by close to 60. Yikes! He could also be 43 points off in endurance, both are monumental shifts in a player being effective or not.
Yet at the same time, my OC doesn't sit far away from the rest of the field at all. Could it be that he's completely misjudging on just a handful of skills and is spot on with the rest, possibly being as clueless as every coordinator can be on a player's ability and potential.
RB Howard Durrough (w/ interview = overrated), pick 1.32 by Oakland
Code:
My terrible scouting OC vs league average kind of
break -------?__ 69-82 . . break -------??? 65-95 (-4/+13)
power ----?_____ 37-50 . . power ----???___ 37-67 (same/+17)
3d rn ---?______ 27-40 . . 3d rn ----???___ 43-73 (+16/+23)
hol r -------?__ 70-84 . . hol r ------???_ 60-90 (-10/+6)
elusv ??________ _0-16 . . elusv ???_______ _0-30 (same/+14)
outsi -----??___ 52-65 . . outsi -----???__ 48-78 (-4/+13)
blitz ------?___ 55-68 . . blitz ------???_ 63-92 (+8/+24)
av dr -----??___ 54-67 . . av dr ------???_ 63-93 (+9/+26)
gt dw ??________ _0-16 . . gt dw ???_______ _0-30 (same/+14)
route ------?___ 57-70 . . route -----???__ 51-81 (-6/+11)
3d ct --------?? 84-97 . . 3d ct -------??? 69-99 (-15/+2)
pnt r ??________ _0-16 . . pnt r ???_______ _0-30 (same/+14)
kck r ??________ _0-16 . . kck r ???_______ _0-30 (same/+14)
endur --------?? 84-100. . endur -------??? 70-100 (-14/same)
sp tm --------?? 84-100. . sp tm -------??? 70-100 (-14/same)
Durrough was one of 3 RBs that I interviewed, obviously before knowing we would sign Crane and trade for Kapp. I anticipated on drafting a RB at 1.17 or maybe at 2.16. Still, he was interviewed and my OC arrowed the uncertainty to 16 or 17 points for each skill, compared to the league's average that's at roughly 30 points.
The overall picture in both situations is kind of similar: a RB with breakaway speed, hole recognition, very low elusiveness, some receiving skills and endurance to be able to carry all day long. Yes, the differences are there, but it's basically just in two skills: third down running and avoiding drops. That's almost neglectable if you already have a short yardage back and don't throw to the RB a lot.
My OC interviews well, it's a main reason why I actually trusted that "overrated" and decided to let Durrough fly at 1.17. Well, not entirely, he was still #2 on my list, but it was just enough to give S Ernie Grant the edge. A decision made before we even offered a contract to veteran RB Jack Crane.
Okay, so, what have we learned so far? I think it tells me that there are two things at hand in the scouting of players: players will be masked, underrated if you wish, not just in one skill but all around. But, they will also be misjudged on single skills, where a terrible OC might potentially be off as much as 50 out of 100 points, that's huge if you're a GM like me who focusses on one- or two-bar players a lot.
Conclusions? Nothing particular, other than: scouting can seriously push you into a different direction on a player. I'm most certainly not going to give up on our should have been rookie of the year quarterback. I'll just have to find a way to figure out which kind of changes we'll see in pre-season: randomness or unmasking.
It has become a challenge and I'm already convinced it will be a one-year solution at OC. It also makes me more aware that having a good staff isn't just an advantage, but keeping the finances healthy is key to draft well (in our case kind of by lucky to start with a top-notch situation all the way back in 2004, but later on being very quick in building a maxed out stadium, which is a must-have). And this season we made a horrible pick, at least concerning scouting. This staff member might be good elsewhere and just have trouble with young players and maybe just a random skill or two, or three.