Quote:
Originally Posted by Arles
Given what I know about them and the potential attacks they face in a general, I can't see Warren, Harris or Sanders winning against Trump. I think Biden would be a tossup as he could get some of the "white guys in the midwest/south who don't like Trump" vote - but he wouldn't be as strong a candidate. Booker is the one that intrigues me - I think he would have a legit shot of rallying the younger voters. Outside of that, I just can't see any of these people winning. Then again, I didn't think Trump would win the republican nomination (and the general) - so take all this with a pound of sale 
The last thing I will say - republicans vote on "fear of the opponent", democrats vote on "how inspiring their guy/girl is". So a bad nominee doesn't hurt republicans nearly as much as democrats - especially if a someone that can be branded a clear republican villain like Warren, Sanders or Harris is nominated. |
Dems will get more voters out than R's. They did in 2016 and millennials are skewing heavily D while the Boomer part of the electorate is starting to shrink. If turnout stays high as it did in the midterms then the Dem candidate likely wins unless they really screw things up again. If they screw things up then it's going to mirror 2016 and come down to how independents fall.
Trump's biggest flaw going into the 2020 election is he governs to what gets his base excited and never really goes outside that comfort zone. He's going to run up the score in strong red states, but unless something changes quickly he's going to struggle in some states he won last time.