Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Going back through posts from this morning and ran across this one -
I think two candidate runoff is the best way to make a Day 1 vote count. Statistically, we are probably at worst 66% likely to get one bad guy involved in a runoff.
I've run the numbers on why I think it is a bad idea to have me in the runoff, knowing that I'm with STARS. If we have two people from STARS in that head to head, we are not going to learn nearly as much from this vote.
That being said, if we are going to have someone from STARS be in this against someone from another faction on Day 1 then I'm pretty OK with being that person. I'll be around, I'll argue my points as strongly as I can on Day 1, and take my chances on how it works out. That is a better option for STARS than having someone quiet in this position who gets run over by the other two factions - who would be very pleased to escape a Day 1 lynch.
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I think you were missing my point. Its not as much that I have an issue with a rundown between people, I was more saying that its easy to say that but leave it to others to determine who that would be.
The only thing I've gathered is that you would be fine with a run down between yourself vs Lathum or yourself vs St.cronin. I've stated that I won't participate in that type of run down, and don't really care to be in one with you involved in it either.
Going based off of nothing other than statistics, its roughly a 32% chance of two stars being in a two person run off today. But the fallacy with that logic is you aren't going to have all 19 votes between those two people, you'll have some sides with an advantage of being able to push candidates they know are not on their team (and more likely to be stars) and in the end, I think on a day 1 run off you are far more likely to have a chance to lynch a Stars member than a non-stars member.
That said, having close votes does matter in voting history and using that to determine things later on in the game. Having a smaller selection of people to vote between helps give more data to go on later (as long as its not a run away vote).
I think there are two bigger factors we have to consider today though than creating voting history between a runoff.
1) Don't lynch someone who will be valuable later in the game just for trying to contibute on day 1 or on a hunch.
2) Don't allow a situation where an accidental tie can happen and thus voiding anything you might gain from the vote later.
I think those two things are more important to avoid than just trying to create a run off on day 1.