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OK so I've been thinking way too much about this game. More than is healthy. So I decided I was just going to quit. God it was relief. I actually slept 6 hours in a row. That helped - I realised, it's just a game. If we lose, we lose. - So I'm going to come up with what I've considered.
Procedural stuff is what I'm good at. It's kind of heavy reading – sorry about that. There are some details I don't want to go into before we know what's what as I don't want to give the wolves ideas. I want to emphasise that I'm not saying anyone should reveal or do anything – I'm just trying to brainstorm.
1- I think we should discuss everyone funnelling their items to Shoveler or Britrock, the completely cleared. I guess there's a risk that the wolves or the cultist will take a shot at them (either the hunter wolf, if there is one or with an ammo clip). If we wanted to play it safe then the person with the ammo clip should send that first. If it comes then everyone else can send their stuff. That way Britrock or Shoveler will know what we've got. If they want they could tell the rest of us and we can claim what items we've sent. The wolves might feel the need to give up items to gain trust which is to our advantage. If Brit or Shove don't want to risk being caught with the items by a brutal or something they can send the items out again to people they trust.
2 - Next the problem of the wolves duking the lynch. Obviously if we know we have the bullhorn then that can be used. I'm going to say that there are other solutions but they're not infallible and I don't want to go into them for now as it might help the wolves with their planning.
3 – Or we can use a day kill instead. Might be the best if we don't have the bullhorn. If we have an ammo clip or there is another village hunter we shoot the suspect. (unless the suspect is Eagle or the other hunter in which case we need the ammo clip). If we don't have the clip that means the village hunter is going to have to give himself away shooting.
If the suspect is village we go 4:2:1 – we still get a lynch but it may be duked (we lose) or a brutal lynching leaves us 3:1:1 followed by a night kill and we're 2:1:1 at the mercy of day kills or tied votes.
If we hit the brutal with the daykill we're 4:1:1 going into the lynch and we have to hit at least the cultist or we risk being 2:1:1 going into the next day.
Hit a normal wolf and we're 5:1:1 and I think we can afford a misslynch, no lynch (or wolf duking) – 4:1:1, 3:1:1 with the night kill.
Hit the cultist and we're 5:2. We can afford to misslynch, just, but are at the mercy of daykills and have to lynch the non-brutal first (I think).
4 – I thought about no lynch as a solution (don't know if its legal) but unfortunately it doesn't hold up in most cases. In theory it's good - bodyguard can protect Britrock – Britrock can get another scan in. Leaves us 4:2:1 if the wolves nightkill, or 5:3 if they convert. The problem is that the wolves might duke the no lynch and it may run foul of the brutal as well. There are ways to control the duke but, again, I don't want to go into that for now.
Basically we need to know if we have the ammo clip and the bullhorn. It would be nice if one of our two cleareds are the last hunter as well because then we control the daykills and we can possibly use the no lynch route.
Tomorrow I'll post my thoughts about who might be a wolf. I need to think about that a bit more. But I think you can ignore my post above - I don't think Autumn is the cultist. I think he would have fake claimed as seer if he was. He would have it all lined up for after daybreak. I think you can say the same thing about me - Autumn will tell you that I'm not afraid to fake claim if I'm a cultist. But I could be wrong. Maybe he thought he was too distrusted to try it. Maybe he thought Britrock's scan of him benefited him.
So that's it for me. I'm afraid it isn't great reading but there are positives we can use if we have luck with the items.
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