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QuikSand · 05-15-2021, 09:38 AM

Okay, Preakness day. I'm safely old and in the 'burbs. My last visit to the infield was probably 15 years ago.

Past Performances

Okay, so #3 MEDINA SPIRIT is the Derby winner, and will be the favorite, but not overwhelming. Some will doubt whether he can "win without the juice" or whatever. Others, like me, see this being a less favorable setup for an easy lead. I would not be shocked if he wins here, but if he's 2-1 or so, I think he's an underlay (odds too low to merit betting). I will look for value, as I usually do.

Pimlico has a long term history as a speed-favoring track, grab the rail and you've got a great shot. Yesterday did nothing to dispel that. That favors MEDINA SPIRIT, to be honest. But I expect the other Baffert horse, #10 CONCERT TOUR, might want the lead even more than him, and may have the fleetness of foot to get it. I make him a major player. But I do expect them to be pushed by 5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (whose Derby race was pretty solid, after a bad start), and possibly one or two others. I don't think this will get stolen on the front, if an early leaders wins, he'll have to earn it.

I think I'm looking to beat the rail bias here, and I'm looking at a mid-closer in 4 CROWDED TRADE to be in good shape to pick up the pieces after a hot pace. And the recent workouts by 9 RISK TAKING are really sharp, he has been a pure late-runner thus far, but I reckon he won't fall 8 lengths back here. I think the 9 might be a really tasty price (the 4 feels like a wiseguy horse who goes off at 6 rather than 10) ... and if I'm getting north of his morning like of 15-1, I am going to hammer that 9 both on top and underneath.

My main $45 ticket for the triple thus far is:
4 9 10
3 4 9 10
2 3 4 5 8 9 10

Good luck, friends.

05-15-2021, 09:38 AM	#34
QuikSand lolzcat Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Annapolis, Md	Okay, Preakness day. I'm safely old and in the 'burbs. My last visit to the infield was probably 15 years ago. Past Performances Okay, so #3 MEDINA SPIRIT is the Derby winner, and will be the favorite, but not overwhelming. Some will doubt whether he can "win without the juice" or whatever. Others, like me, see this being a less favorable setup for an easy lead. I would not be shocked if he wins here, but if he's 2-1 or so, I think he's an underlay (odds too low to merit betting). I will look for value, as I usually do. Pimlico has a long term history as a speed-favoring track, grab the rail and you've got a great shot. Yesterday did nothing to dispel that. That favors MEDINA SPIRIT, to be honest. But I expect the other Baffert horse, #10 CONCERT TOUR, might want the lead even more than him, and may have the fleetness of foot to get it. I make him a major player. But I do expect them to be pushed by 5 MIDNIGHT BOURBON (whose Derby race was pretty solid, after a bad start), and possibly one or two others. I don't think this will get stolen on the front, if an early leaders wins, he'll have to earn it. I think I'm looking to beat the rail bias here, and I'm looking at a mid-closer in 4 CROWDED TRADE to be in good shape to pick up the pieces after a hot pace. And the recent workouts by 9 RISK TAKING are really sharp, he has been a pure late-runner thus far, but I reckon he won't fall 8 lengths back here. I think the 9 might be a really tasty price (the 4 feels like a wiseguy horse who goes off at 6 rather than 10) ... and if I'm getting north of his morning like of 15-1, I am going to hammer that 9 both on top and underneath. My main $45 ticket for the triple thus far is: 4 9 10 3 4 9 10 2 3 4 5 8 9 10 Good luck, friends.