Front Office Football Central - View Single Post - 12-team Playoff? A "What-if-Sports" Dynasty to Rectify the Scourge of the BCS

Vegas Vic · 06-27-2021, 01:44 PM

I wanted to update this for anyone who is following. I've given some thought to this, and I'm going to change the process slightly. Up to this point, I've just been using a one game simulation to determine the winner of each game. While this is obviously more expedient, it yields a significant amount of variance.

What I'm going to do is run 101 simulations of each matchup, with the winner being determined on who wins the majority of those simulations. Then, the actual game of record will be the last game of those simulations that has that particular team winning. So, there will still be blowouts and nail biters, but the likely winner of the game will be more accurately determined. There will still be Cinderella stories. I've already run the 101 simulations of the first round game between the 2003 Miami RedHawks vs Ohio State Buckeyes, and Big Ben's RedHawks won 73.3% of the simulations by an average score of 29.4 to 20.5. So when that game rolls around, the RedHawks will defeat the Buckeyes. That's the only spoiler that I will give.

I've taken down the previous seasons, while I run all of the simulations. I'll repost them with updated results, beginning with the 1998-1999 season.

06-27-2021, 01:44 PM	#6
Vegas Vic Checkraising Tourists Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cocoa Beach, FL	I wanted to update this for anyone who is following. I've given some thought to this, and I'm going to change the process slightly. Up to this point, I've just been using a one game simulation to determine the winner of each game. While this is obviously more expedient, it yields a significant amount of variance. What I'm going to do is run 101 simulations of each matchup, with the winner being determined on who wins the majority of those simulations. Then, the actual game of record will be the last game of those simulations that has that particular team winning. So, there will still be blowouts and nail biters, but the likely winner of the game will be more accurately determined. There will still be Cinderella stories. I've already run the 101 simulations of the first round game between the 2003 Miami RedHawks vs Ohio State Buckeyes, and Big Ben's RedHawks won 73.3% of the simulations by an average score of 29.4 to 20.5. So when that game rolls around, the RedHawks will defeat the Buckeyes. That's the only spoiler that I will give. I've taken down the previous seasons, while I run all of the simulations. I'll repost them with updated results, beginning with the 1998-1999 season. Last edited by Vegas Vic : 06-27-2021 at 09:45 PM.