[Brian Swartz]

Race to the World Tour Finals
Initial, Post-Wimbledon Edition

In

Girish Girsh -- 8710
Gustavo Caratti -- 7300

After looking at the math, it's clear that Girsh basically has a lock on the top spot this year. The lead over Caratti is only modest, of course, but the Argentine hasn't shown the game to be a serious hardcourt threat -- the price of his clay dominance. And Iglar is further back than I expected. You might say that the Era of Girsh has begun. I expect it to be at least a year, quite possibly two before he's challenged again ... by a younger Sri Lankan.


Probable

Antonin Iglar -- 5180
Anil Mehul -- 4630
Mugur Kinczllers -- 3750
Theodore Bourdet -- 3400

Wimbledon basically separated Kinzllers and Bourdet from the pack. They'd have to stumble badly not to qualify now. Iglar still has some work to do, and he'd basically have to run the table now to have any chance at #1. I think that ship has sailed. Meanwhile, you can see that Mehul's lead over the rest of the field here is not nearly what it once was. It's not a foregone conclusion that he even stays at #4 through the end of the year, though he probably will have enough yet to make that happen for one more season.


Contenders

Agustin Herrera -- 2855
Bjorn Benda -- 2740
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I was sure Benda was done in terms of being a top-8 player, but look at this! He could very well get passed up yet, but a pair of Slam QFs and semis or better in all three clay Masters have been enough to give him a solid position at this juncture.


Long Shots

Davide Poilblan -- 2335
Pierce Gaskell -- 2330
Elias Trulsen -- 2140
Shreya Ujjaval -- 2120
Tobia Alberti -- 2105
Thiago Herrera -- 2020
Prakash Mooljee -- 2000
Roger Federer -- 1900
Garreth McCuskey -- 1830

Here is the rest of the story. Pretty clear that Gaskell is past it, as he can manage no better than this even with favorable draws ... which will go away soon if he can't find another fountain of youth. The majority of the names here, as always, are pretenders. Some have a chance though. Davide Poilblan will get favorable draws and is uniquely positioned, like the Frenchmen were last year, to make noise at Paris at the end when all the chips are down. Shreya Ujjaval has a trio of Slam quarterfinals this year ... but has done next to nothing in the Masters events. Those trends won't co-exist permanently. Prakash Mooljee will be objectively the best player in the world by the end of the year, but he's got to stop losing matches he should win. There's still time for him, but it'll take a couple big runs or consistent solid play, given the number of players he needs to pass and the sizable gap to overcome. The others are all past their best tennis and are merely the best of those who won't make it.

If I were a betting man, I'd say Ujjaval and Mooljee have their moments but come up well short(hopefully not, but that's how it looks from here). Poilblan I think will have enough to make it in over Benda, so I am predicting one switch, but this could go a lot of ways. Agustin Herrera didn't do diddly squat in the year-end hardcourts last year, and this season so far has only a QF at Indian Wells. He's 'propped up' right now by the Madrid title. There's definitely at least the two spots to be had, if anyone has the drive to go get them.