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SackAttack · 08-25-2005, 03:32 PM

I want you guys to think about two things.

1) Everybody is piling on voting for me. If I am what you all believe I am, does that help you guys at all to determine who the rest of the Mafia are?

2) Right now, 17 of us are left alive.

We know one of two things. Either:

2a) The Mafia can make multiple kills each night, or
2b) There is a Werewolf faction alive and well.

We know that among the 17 exists a Mafia Turncoat, working for the Mafia's ends, but showing up as a Villager on scans. Let us assume that there are either two or three Mafioso in either scenario 2a or scenario 2b. In scenario 2a) If there are two plus a turncoat, that means 14 villagers remain. If the Mafia can make multiple kills each night, then there will be two more villagers dead tomorrow morning whether I am Mafia or not. If I am innocent, then by lynching me, you will have reduced the numbers to 11 villagers plus the three remaining 'bad guy' roles. If there are three Mafia plus the Turncoat, then it becomes a 10-4 advantage.

But it doesn't even stop there. Let's say there is also a werewolf role in addition to the previously established 3/4 Mafia sympathizers, and that that's where the extra kill is coming from. Do we know that there is only one wolf? Do we know that the wolf cannot convert anybody? Without knowing that, even if there's only one kill tonight, we don't know what's going to happen from there. Will there be two wolves the next night, plus any remaining Mafioso?

Let's look at the absolute worst-case scenario here. There are three Mafia, a Mafia Turncoat, and a wolf of the remaining 17 villagers. That gives the villagers a 12-5 advantage.

When you lynch an innocent villager tonight, that advantage drops to 11-5. If there are two more kills in the night, unless one of the kills ends up being the Turncoat, then you guys will wake up tomorrow with just a 9-5 advantage and still no idea of where to turn, except possibly henry. That means you'll *have* to get somebody tomorrow, or else wake up the next day with just 6-5 advantage (assuming the wolf cannot convert anybody), and one wrong step ends the game.

I'm not going to change anybody's mind, I'm sure, but I urge you to carefully consider ALL of the dynamics here. Piling on me because of henry's claim will make it easier for the bad guys to hide, but not only that, when you lynch an innocent villager tonight, you're going to set in motion a nearly irreversible chain of events that will lead to a victory for the Mafia - unless the luck that worked for the Mafia last game works against them this time.

08-25-2005, 03:32 PM	#261
SackAttack Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Green Bay, WI	I want you guys to think about two things. 1) Everybody is piling on voting for me. If I am what you all believe I am, does that help you guys at all to determine who the rest of the Mafia are? 2) Right now, 17 of us are left alive. We know one of two things. Either: 2a) The Mafia can make multiple kills each night, or 2b) There is a Werewolf faction alive and well. We know that among the 17 exists a Mafia Turncoat, working for the Mafia's ends, but showing up as a Villager on scans. Let us assume that there are either two or three Mafioso in either scenario 2a or scenario 2b. In scenario 2a) If there are two plus a turncoat, that means 14 villagers remain. If the Mafia can make multiple kills each night, then there will be two more villagers dead tomorrow morning whether I am Mafia or not. If I am innocent, then by lynching me, you will have reduced the numbers to 11 villagers plus the three remaining 'bad guy' roles. If there are three Mafia plus the Turncoat, then it becomes a 10-4 advantage. But it doesn't even stop there. Let's say there is also a werewolf role in addition to the previously established 3/4 Mafia sympathizers, and that that's where the extra kill is coming from. Do we know that there is only one wolf? Do we know that the wolf cannot convert anybody? Without knowing that, even if there's only one kill tonight, we don't know what's going to happen from there. Will there be two wolves the next night, plus any remaining Mafioso? Let's look at the absolute worst-case scenario here. There are three Mafia, a Mafia Turncoat, and a wolf of the remaining 17 villagers. That gives the villagers a 12-5 advantage. When you lynch an innocent villager tonight, that advantage drops to 11-5. If there are two more kills in the night, unless one of the kills ends up being the Turncoat, then you guys will wake up tomorrow with just a 9-5 advantage and still no idea of where to turn, except possibly henry. That means you'll have to get somebody tomorrow, or else wake up the next day with just 6-5 advantage (assuming the wolf cannot convert anybody), and one wrong step ends the game. I'm not going to change anybody's mind, I'm sure, but I urge you to carefully consider ALL of the dynamics here. Piling on me because of henry's claim will make it easier for the bad guys to hide, but not only that, when you lynch an innocent villager tonight, you're going to set in motion a nearly irreversible chain of events that will lead to a victory for the Mafia - unless the luck that worked for the Mafia last game works against them this time.