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Originally Posted by nol
That's what I'd be saying too if I were trying to get good value in exchange for Williams and Jordan. If they can't get a deal done for those two, then sure they can stay in the run for the 8-9 seed since the team has done alright without Griffin and it's not an enormous drop-off from him to Harris at this point.
The worst-case outcome for the Clippers would be for them to finish the season exactly where they currently are in the standings, and either way it'd be a solid trade just for getting picks and opening up more cap flexibility without majorly downgrading the team in the current year. The schedule was kind to the Clippers in January (six games against the Grizzlies, Hawks, and Kings plus wins over the Rockets and Warriors who were resting star players) and it would not have been surprising for them to have fallen back over the next few months regardless.
I don't want to talk too much about the upcoming draft, but by my count there are 7 players who would be a solid choice at #1 overall in a lot of years. Even if they 'only' got down to 8th-worst, that's about a tenfold increase at the chances at getting lucky and moving into the top 3.
The Clippers are extremely reliant on DJ and Williams (I mean, Williams is putting up Curry-like offensive numbers over the last month or so and the team is still just .500). It would not be a stretch to see them winning like 3 games the rest of the year without those two. Avery Bradley is just an expiring contract at this point who won't be helping a team win regular season games; he is more valuable to a team like the Cavs that desperately needs someone who can guard point guards.
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Either Tobias Harris is a big downgrade from Blake Griffin or he isn't. Avery Bradley is actually a solid fit next to Milos Teodosic & Lou if he stays. And the Clippers just went 3-2 with DJ out including the win over the Rockets. They already have 25 wins, and Danilo Gallinari/Austin Rivers coming back might hurt more than it helps, but I would still bet my life savings on them going better than 3-30 the rest of the season. Considering how many wins the Clippers have in hand, which of the Magic, Hawks, Bulls, Nets, Suns, Kings, Mavs, Grizzlies are getting above 30 wins and the Clippers eventual win total? So even if all the other teams - including the Lakers, Jazz, Hornets, who are all very flawed - pass them, you're still only at a 6% chance of getting into the top 3, and a 94% chance you're at #9/10/11. And I know both of us think that 8th/9th in the conference no man's land is a terrible place to be, but the Clippers pushing for solid rotation players in the Chris Paul and now Griffin deals, plus signing Gallinari last summer, would indicate they're actually committed to this "rebuild without bottoming out" plan. (Which is even weirder because they'll owe the Celtics their 1st in 2019 or 2020 if they make the playoffs.)
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For the second and hopefully final time, the trade has nothing to do with LeBron. Even if the Clippers were seriously trying to acquire him, I can assure you that the prospect of playing with Blake Griffin, who is a worse fit next to LeBron than Kevin Love at this point, in 2018 and beyond would not be a draw. If the Lakers want to open up cap space by trading Deng and a couple young players/future picks for Jordan that's definitely alright by me.
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Marc Stein on Twitter: "The Clippers clearly believe they can make it onto LeBron James' free-agent short list come July and, according to league sources, will indeed move DeAndre Jordan and Lou Williams before the Feb. 8 trade deadline if they can find workable deals to help them in that quest" Marc Stein isn't my favorite NBA reporter, but it's not the Daily News, and Zach Lowe is saying the same thing.
People are even hinting that the Clippers might not actually trade DJ, LouWill & now I guess Bradley too. Which doesn't make any sense to me, but few of the Clippers moves since Doc took over have. It's not like the alternative of letting Griffin age into that contract was great either, but I just really disagree with the overall direction they seem to be heading.