[Breeze]

2016 SE GPAC Tom Lalor Invitational - UWF Aquatic Center (Pensacola, FL) - 6/3 - 6/5

This is the first long course meet of the season for my kids, but for several reasons, I don't have high expectations on how they will do. Heres is why:

1. These next couple of weeks are finals at school, which will lead to missed practices in order to prepare

2. Bailey and Bear will be going to Savannah for their 8th grade trip Monday to Wednesday (5/23 - 5/25) and will miss 5 full practices right before the meet

3. It is a travel meet, which means they will stay up late, not eat great and probably not be as focused on their actual performance

4. An unfortunate problem with the pool pump has occurred at our facility forcing the kids to miss practice on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning (so far, the issue still isn't resolved), which is just more time out of the water...

Anyway - hopefully, they will get off to a good start despite all these items working against them. It will be hard to make any prediction/comment about what to expect given the items above, and the fact that being long course I don't have a point of reference yet, but I'll provide some thoughts and we'll see how intuitive I am. Here is what they will be competing in.

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Bailey

# 49 (d2/s3): G 13-14 200 Free (2:27.07L) - Given Baileys improvement in Freestyle at the end of short course, and the fact she's continuing to report improved performance in the stroke at practice I expect a drop here...maybe 2:23 range.
# 57 (d2/s3): G 13-14 200 Fly (2:39.32L) - says she's working on a deeper dig with this stroke, and she's not completely comfortable with it, also said it causes some discomfort in her lower back (because she's having to use those muscles more so there is soreness there)...given these, a slight improvement would be welcome, but before the end of the season, she could be looking at an 8 second drop or more if all the pieces fall together.
# 61 (d2/s3): G 13-14 100 Back (1:19.50L) - reports she's still struggling with her rotation on one side (can't remember which one). Don't expect much here, maybe a slight drop.
# 65B (d2/s3): G 13-14 400 Free (5:13.89L) - hasn't done any distance or mid-distance frees in a while. I expect a drop, just because it's been so long.
# 83 (d3/s5): G 13-14 100 Free (1:10.32L) - similar to the 200 free, but given workload at the meet, fatigue could start to become a factor here.
# 87 (d3/s5): G 13-14 200 Back (2:43.24L) - should drop just because it's been so long, but like the 100 back there is some technique work to be done in the stroke, and fatigue could again be an issue.
# 95 (d3/s5): G 13-14 200 Medley (2:45.66L) - don't expect much here...but improved breaststroke could lead to a pleasant surprise.
# 99C (d3/s5): G 13-14 800 Free (10:36.92L) - won't be thrilled about having to swim this, but she needs to start embracing the mid distance and longer swims, given she'll be too short to naturally compete in sprint events...

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Bear

# 50 (d2/s3): B 13-14 200 Free (2:18.25L) - Bear's dramatic improvement over the last year could be reflected here...he could actually drop close to 10 seconds and I wouldn't be surprised. Just don't know how hard the coaches will work them in practice headed into this event.
# 58 (d2/s3): B 13-14 200 Fly (2:34.45L) - similar situation to the 200 free...could be much better if he isn't overworked headed into the meet.
# 62 (d2/s3): B 13-14 100 Back (1:19.49L) - Haven't heard much about this stroke, so not sure what to expect...
# 66B (d2/s3): B 13-14 400 Free (4:43.05L) - again another big drop is possible. In fact, if he doesn't improve by about 10 seconds I'm sure he won't be happy.
# 84 (d3/s5): B 13-14 100 Free (1:03.33L) - Slight drop would be good...bet his goal is to go sub60 before the end of the season...
# 88 (d3/s5): B 13-14 200 Back (2:36.75L) - see 100 back...
# 96 (d3/s5): B 13-14 200 Medley (2:35.54L) - improved breast, even with the expected fatigue at this point, probably means a pretty decent drop.
# 100C (d3/s5): B 13-14 1500 Free (18:42.57L) - who knows...because fatigue is such an issue in this event he could do almost anything. Last year, he didn't do well in this event at this pool. He was ok, but not great. I expect more of the same this time around. A drop, but not a substantial one. Of course, based on his short course times, he could drop almost a minute if he's feeling right...

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Brett

# 52 (d2/s3): B Open 200 Free (2:26.94L) - could drop a few seconds here...hope he does so it gives him confidence moving forward.
# 56 (d2/s3): B Open 100 Breast (1:27.36L) - no idea what to expect. His form is all over the place and coach is working with him on something right now...just not sure what.
# 64 (d2/s3): B Open 100 Back (1:24.42L) - Should improve a bunch here, but he never seems to do it. If he'll attack this race and drop a good bit of time, it will help his college profile page a bunch.
# 66C (d2/s3): B 15 & Over 400 Free (5:28.07L) - should drop time here based on his improvement in the 500 free, and the fact he really should be faster than his recorded time in that event as well...hopefully, the extra strength work will pay off and he'll be able to maintain a harder pace.
# 86 (d3/s5): B Open 100 Free (1:09.03L) - another area where improved strength could pay off...
# 90 (d3/s5): B Open 200 Back (2:48.93L) - like the 100 back, but even more important for his college profile. He seems to fit better on most of the colleges he's eyeing in the 200 back...
# 94 (d3/s5): B Open 50 Breast (40.56L) - this could be a huge drop, because it isn't an event that swimmers older than 12 typically swim. I have to beleive he's in this event because the coach wants to work on Brett's pacing in the stroke...but the coach hasn't confirmed that with us.
# 98 (d3/s5): B Open 200 Medley (2:47.84L) - improved fly, back and free vs. fatigue...hopefully the strength and stroke improvement will prevail.
# 100D (d3/s5): B 15 & Over 1500 Free (20:25.23L) - I don't know what to expect here...my guess is he'll probably pack it in a bit due to last race, fatigue, and lack of comfort racing the event.