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Brian Swartz · 09-26-2019, 03:18 AM

Elite (Top 32)

With graduation from the Challenger level, it is now winning time. Chittoor (and others) have now reached the level of the 1%ers. Literally; this group comprises almost exactly that amount of all ranked players. I can't do a proper comparison at this level to previous proteges, because there is no clearly delineated way to separate such as 'win futures until you reach the Top 200' etc.

The whole way of scheduling and competing must change now. Nasir is now eligible to be seeded in all Slam events as well as the big Masters in Indian Wells and Miami. Additionally, finishing the year 30th or higher means he is required to play all Masters events except Monte Carlo … and they'll count as being missed even if he doesn't. Which is a bad thing to have an empty event, esp. since it means getting banned from your best Masters event the following year. In Nasir's case, he finished 31st last year so he doesn't have to worry about that just yet.

What he does have to worry about is now being part of the Consolidation Corps. If you assume that he just makes it as far into the draw as his ranking would predict, the only events that he can reliably replace the points from one of his challenger wins at - and he's currently got a whopping 16 of them comprising nearly 96% of his points total - are the Slams. There he'll get 90 points for three matches if he doesn't lose early, while that took five matches in a challenger last year. Everywhere else though, he's got to perpetrate an upset of some kind to get equivalent value to the tournaments he's defending. If he can't do that with a reasonable level of frequency, it's right back on that Challenger Carousel. Some will stay up; some will not. I expect Chittoor to succeed, but if so he needs to seize some opportunities, find some 250s with relatively weak fields and make at least the semifinals there if not further, etc. For the next few months he's not defending much at all … but after that there will be a calamitous exodus of points and it's never trivial to prepare for that.

Assuming he gets over that hurdle, the next stage is to reach World-Class status, i.e. halve his ranking and get into the Top 16. From here on out, every such 'promotion' involves getting into a select group half the size of the current one. That doesn't sound too bad; futures is a third of amateurs, challengers a fifth of futures, etc. This is only half … but a significant part of that half is the best players in the world at the peak of their abilities. Here, most crucially, the only way to make significant upward progress is to beat those players ahead of him. The run-around in challengers to avoid the best competition to get ahead in the rankings game is of limited use now, and soon will be of none at all. It's time to plunge directly into the swift current of the established powers - he'll make his way through them, or flounder in the attempt.

09-26-2019, 03:18 AM	#1207
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Elite (Top 32) With graduation from the Challenger level, it is now winning time. Chittoor (and others) have now reached the level of the 1%ers. Literally; this group comprises almost exactly that amount of all ranked players. I can't do a proper comparison at this level to previous proteges, because there is no clearly delineated way to separate such as 'win futures until you reach the Top 200' etc. The whole way of scheduling and competing must change now. Nasir is now eligible to be seeded in all Slam events as well as the big Masters in Indian Wells and Miami. Additionally, finishing the year 30th or higher means he is required to play all Masters events except Monte Carlo … and they'll count as being missed even if he doesn't. Which is a bad thing to have an empty event, esp. since it means getting banned from your best Masters event the following year. In Nasir's case, he finished 31st last year so he doesn't have to worry about that just yet. What he does have to worry about is now being part of the Consolidation Corps. If you assume that he just makes it as far into the draw as his ranking would predict, the only events that he can reliably replace the points from one of his challenger wins at - and he's currently got a whopping 16 of them comprising nearly 96% of his points total - are the Slams. There he'll get 90 points for three matches if he doesn't lose early, while that took five matches in a challenger last year. Everywhere else though, he's got to perpetrate an upset of some kind to get equivalent value to the tournaments he's defending. If he can't do that with a reasonable level of frequency, it's right back on that Challenger Carousel. Some will stay up; some will not. I expect Chittoor to succeed, but if so he needs to seize some opportunities, find some 250s with relatively weak fields and make at least the semifinals there if not further, etc. For the next few months he's not defending much at all … but after that there will be a calamitous exodus of points and it's never trivial to prepare for that. Assuming he gets over that hurdle, the next stage is to reach World-Class status, i.e. halve his ranking and get into the Top 16. From here on out, every such 'promotion' involves getting into a select group half the size of the current one. That doesn't sound too bad; futures is a third of amateurs, challengers a fifth of futures, etc. This is only half … but a significant part of that half is the best players in the world at the peak of their abilities. Here, most crucially, the only way to make significant upward progress is to beat those players ahead of him. The run-around in challengers to avoid the best competition to get ahead in the rankings game is of limited use now, and soon will be of none at all. It's time to plunge directly into the swift current of the established powers - he'll make his way through them, or flounder in the attempt.