The only reason you have an opportunity of 20x growth though of course is related to the probability of zero-ing out. I can't begin to understand Citigroup's books, and believe me I tried. I knew enough to short them (and BAC) when they were 5 to 10 times what they are now (well I shorted them a few times each, yay evil short monster). But like I said after my last liquidation of BAC... they are so low in share price that even I am getting weary to short them with any serious money anymore. I do make small gambles using SKF/SDS, but always short term and always with an 'oh fuck' exit strategy, and small enough amounts that I can handle it.
So I don't feel as qualified to make a guess as when I was betting house sized (well 2008 prices anyway
) chunks that there was more bad news to come. Basically I was just practicing what I preach though, if I say we were printing money and bailing out to obfuscate serious problems in the banks who have continued bad leadership and bleak outlook, then of course I should put my money where my mouth is and put money on where I think the truth will take us (a continuation of the short term slide in banks). I will admit though with some of the banks, particularly the ones I think will become the evil merger monsters of tommorrow, that I'm playing with buy bets. I'm not so much timing the bottom as still being in the process of calculating whether or when there will ever be an upswing. I've got the money now to sit on some red ink for 2 or 3 years if I know for a fact that the company is not going to go completely under and will be part of a real recovery (not a looks good on paper recovery either).