|
To be fair, if everyone shorted the moment I started having reservations, they would have been wiped out from 1997 to 2001, if they started shorting when I knew something was wrong, they would have been destroyed from 2003 to 2006.
Same thing on a recovery, you can know that some parts of going to survive the mess with a pretty high probability, but you have to wait until the market momentum shifts before there will be a profit.
As for me, I'm just lucky I happened to start in 2007, and have always been a fan of the short (since I believe it is easier to predict panic than it is to predict growth). Only time will tell whether my notions of long plays will pan out (I wish I had the assets and the knowledge of a Warren Buffett in that regard, where I can outright buy and manage companies the way I think they would make money... hard working through indirect stocks more like gambling really).
|