DRAFT BOOMS/BUSTS
First off, it looks like I was a little off: 15 years of draft picks are viewable/clickable, not every single one in league history. Good enough for this check, though. I'm at the end of 2041. Here are the top 10 picks from 2027.
1(1):
SP Rodney Longbehn--122-133, 4.19 ERA--led league in strikeouts once (2040), all star twice (2038 and 2040)
1(2):
CF Gregg Burns--lifetime .754 OPS. --gold glove once
1(3):
1B James Manning--lifetime .789 OPS-three seasons of >30 HR's
1(4):
SP James McGlathery--94-102, 4.36 ERA, but has been very strong the past 5-6 seasons. perfect game once---ERA over 4.00 only once since 2033--probably rushed a bit...born 2008....hit league in 2029, and had 3 1/2 awful season...put it together with 10-9, 3.94 at age 25, and has been solid since
1(5):
1B Ever Padilla--star slugger--lifetime .944 OPS--two seasons of 60+ homers, and five of 40+--7 All Stars, 3 MVPS, 10 Gold Gloves, ROY
1(6):
SP Daniel Heyert--107-95, 4.11--1-time All-Star
1(7):
C Harry Dixon--lifetime .310 hitter-starter for last 10 seasons--8 Gold Gloves, 1 -time All Star
1(8);
RP Herman Hurst--never became a closer--lifetime 31-29, 3.79 ERA in 453 appearances
1(9):
RP Luis Clavet--45-41, 3.51 ERA, 238 saves--spent 7 seasons as closer--1-time NL saves leader
1(10):
SS Mike Modzinski--complete bust---33 years old now, and has never had a season with >421 AB's
Looking at Padilla's player card made me notice something that made me happy:
By the way, it turns out that the AAA listing on his card is a reporting bug, which has been reported to Clay.
As far as booms are concerned, I figure the best way to examine that is to look at some league leaders, and see when they were drafted.
TOP TEN HR HITTERS THIS YEAR
1(5)--67
1(2)--57
2(13)--57
1(22)--52
2(7)--49
5(25)--46
1(7)--46
4(27)--44
1(10)--43
1(16)--41
I can live with that.
TOP ERA PITCHERS THIS YEAR
1(12)--1.82
1(21)--2.28
1(30)--2.40
4(12)--2.64
3(30)--2.70
1(4)--2.71
3(5)--2.88
4(28)--2.97
1(1)--2.99
1(6)--3.00
I can live with that, too.
ACTIVE TOP-FIVE CAREER HOME RUN LEADERS
1(19)--541
1(5)--454
3(30)--452
3(21)--451
1(5)--448
ACTIVE TOP-FIVE CAREER WIN LEADERS
1(1)--290
1(4)--253
1(1)--213
2(12)--203
1(3)--201
(Note--of the next five career win leaders, only one was a first round pick.)
THOUGHTS AT THIS POINT: Booms and busts definitely happen. Right now, the Braves are middle-of-the-road (#14) in scout spending, and have a variance of +/- 8 points. That is pretty significant on a game with a scale of 75-100 for major league caliber ratings. My initial thought, based on past experiences with Mogul, is that as long as you're not using the Yankees, Mets, or Dodgers, there will be times when, in order to keep your star players, you'll have to drop down to middle-of-the-road or worse in scouting. If that is the case, a player rated 83 could be anything from a 75-rating (usually not an everyday player) to 91. Putting the game in commish mode, I can see that there are only 11 players in the entire current universe with *true* overall ratings of 91 or better--and 9 of those 11 put up star-caliber numbers this year. That's a pretty dang wide scout variance.