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Old 06-29-2006, 06:24 PM   #3554
Barkeep49
Coordinator
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
Well I, personally, think the percentages, if anything, were already favorable for the necros. As it stood there was, on night 1, a 25% chance of randomly choosing another necro. Thus there was a 75% chance of choosing a human. Thus, if a necro had decided to go for a kill, the end results would look like this:
37.5% chance of killing a villager (75% chance of finding a villager; 50/50 chance of killing that villager)
37.5% chance of failing to kill a villager (75% chance of finding a villager; 50/50 chance of killing that villager)
18.75% chance of finding a necro and meeting each other
(25% chance of finding a necro, 75% chance that they recognize each other)
3.125% chance of finding a necro, attacking them, failing to kill them, but having the other person know that the person who attacked them was a necro, allowing them to connect the next night (25% chance of finding a necro, 25% chance of not realizing they were a necro, 50% chance of failing to kill them)
3.125% chance of killing a necro

It seems to me that the risk of killing a necro is low enough, and since only 3.125% points of finding another necro are sacrificed, with the aditional 37.5% chance of killing a villager, that killing every night instead of searching is the way to go in the current rule set.
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