Quote:
Originally Posted by SirBlurton
Dang it - and not crappy enough for a high draft pick....that's not how The Process is supposed to work!
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The process. lol!
There's a slight twist on player progression and the draft, so I don't think it's going to be as important to have the top pick(s). I want the draft to be more about finding the
right players than just having the top pick.
That being said, it's easier to find the best fit if you have the top pick.
Every player comes into the league with the exact same "potential". That basically means that there's no real potential rating. Players end up on progression arcs based on a number of factors, but it ends up being fairly random. However, the randomness is controlled in such a way that players should develop a defined progression arc by the time they hit the 3rd or 4th year.
- Basically in years 1-3 you're going to have pretty wild progression.
- By year 4-5 it should start settling in to something more predictable, based in part on how years 1-3 turned out
- After year 4-5, the progression arc really takes hold and some players will start to be real busts while others will continue to grow.
- Late in the careers, the progression arc will determine how long a player hangs on in the league, or if they wash out early.
It's still in the experimental phase, but it's looking good so far. I'll probably have an analysis of my data posted soon to get some feedback on.