[Brian Swartz]

2067 Preview

As ever, the same list but more of an evaluation/projection; a look forward, whereas the ranking list is more of a look back at the year that was.

1. John Hart - 89% 8.73, -0.11

Father Time has come for the Irish. Hart's margins aren't what they were, but he's still the clear champion. .

2. Brian Meikeljohn - 88%, 8.86, -0.03

I never look at Meikeljohn without sniffling over what could have been had he been managed better, not wasted points in doubles, etc. He's still objectively the best player on the planet. Has been for 2-3 years. And will almost certainly never be at the top in spite of it.

3. Barry Molyneaux - 88%, 8.53, -0.08

Continues to mask inadequate baseline play by being good to outstanding everywhere else.

4. Ali Solberg - 92%, 8.61, +0.01

Still another year of improvement, but it appears Solberg's progression has stalled. It shouldn't have. Even so, he ought to be more competitive with the players ahead of him simply by virtue of them coming back to the pack.

5. Nicolas Perez - 97%, 8.52, +0.11

A more sober analysis based on this rating might indicate that Perez won't advance much this year. We'll see - proper management is an important factor and I think purely based on better draws he should continue to advance. He would appear to be a couple years away yet from being the man though.

6. Isa Solheim - 92%, 8.50, +0.03

Like Solberg, though not quite as good, Solheim continues to slowly improve and has another season in which to peak.

7. Seamus Hughes - 88%, 8.46, -0.11

Confirming that Hughes' best tennis is behind him, but he will be no pushover.

8. Sushant Chiba - 84%, 8.48, -0.13

Should have been able to stay in the Top 4, really. *sigh*.

9. Mike Rhodes - 89%, 8.25, -0.04

Amusingly, Rhodes now has higher skill than serve for the first time ever. I'm pretty sure that's not a choice - his serve is maxed out.

10. Srba Dogic - 94%, 8.38, +0.12

Baseline game is still underwater, but everything else is there. The meteoric Dogic doesn't have a lot of time to sort that, but hey strike while the iron is hot and all that. Next couple of years are when he'll do whatever it is he's going to do.

Top 10 Average

I thought it might be useful to compare the overall strength of the Top 10 year to year as an era comparison. Could do it for the whole Top 32 but that would be too much effort for me :P.

'65 - 8.573
'66 - 8.532(-0.041)

This is just an average of the ratings for the players, it doesn't take into account mismanagement, etc. Think of it as a 'raw playing strength' comparison. I would expect last year's number to be really quite high historically. With a number of stars declining, we're definitely heading towards a transition eventually to the Age of Perez. The notable thing of recent years to me is that the middle - Solheim/Hughes/Solberg - is somewhat stronger than usual, and then you throw in the generally underachieving Meikeljohn.

13. Tim de Jong - 94%, 8.33, +0.10

de Jong already has the technique of a Top-10 player, but he's a guy who relies more than most on it so he needs a little more to get himself there. I'm confident it will happen though at some point.

14. Samuel Aas- 91%, 8.25, +0.01

Same style of player as de Jong, but has the mentality of a crushed flower and also not the potential that comes with youth.

15. Ollie Haas - 95%, 8.41, ??

Looking at Haas, I wonder why he didn't break through maybe a year earlier. Highly talented, standard technique for a top player, and above-average athleticism. He is a bit on the fast-aging side of things, but you can make a good argument that he might beat de Jong to the first page. The two of them should make the Netherlands (currently 11th) a considerable WTC force.

17. Gullermo Valturri - 92%, 7.96, +0.02

There are Challenger players better than Valturri. I manage one of them myself. It's a bit mystifying to see him up this high.

18. Emilien Mathou - 93%, 8.49, ??

I keep asking why these guys didn't move up sooner - and they hyper-competitive nature of challengers right now is I think a big part of the answer. Mathou is another one with solidly Top-10 ability, nothing borderline about it. Invested some in doubles, and his baseline play is short of the standard, but good mental game and a solid athlete.

19. Chisulo Mpakati - 98%, 8.34, ??

A meteoric talent, Mpakati will go as far as his excellent athleticism takes him. You don't often see someone with 4-star speed and power, but Chisulo has both. That means Zimbabwe has a real star on their hands, at least for the next three years.

20. Constantino Gonzoles- 93%, 8.51, +0.02

Far too good to have not risen further last year, even in this environment. And he's not going to get much better, lacking the dedication of a true professional athlete. Just needs to take better advantage of what he has - namely very good athleticism and elite mentality.

21. Clavet Moniotte - 95%, 8.27, ??

Latest in the line of 'I could have been special, but wasted time on doubles' exhibits. Naturally skill took the hit. Solid athlete/mentality with a Top-5 quality serve already. Behind enough others that he's in the 'should get there eventually' rather than 'future is now' category.

22. Jose Luis Robredo - 93%, 8.20, ??

If his manager ever returns to anything, Robredo waits as a player with the usual quality serve, subpar skill combo. Solid athlete and elite mental game so the pieces are there to try to do something. Isn't much time though, and when you don't practice you throw so much away.

25. Acke Kjaerstad - 98%, 8.31, ??

Strong future if he's well-handled. Baseline play needs work, but the serve is there, along with excellent power and elite mental play. Lots of strong mental guys in this generation. Kjaerstad even has a quite extended shelf life. Should be one of the best of this loaded generation. I'm not sure he isn't second-best after Perez.

26. Il-Sung Jung - 97%, 8.60

What the actual ... ok, Jung makes me want to cry. Considerable wasted doubles goes into the mix here, and yet he's good or better across the board. Endurance is good but not great, so he's clearly been expertly handled for the most part. So ... why is he ranked this low?? Basically, because he's still playing a lot of doubles. 55 singles, 48 doubles matches last year.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! You have the 4th-best singles player in the world, roughly. ACT LIKE IT!!!

Grrr.

27. Santino Belmon - 95%, 8.41, ??

Yet another very strong young player, lost in the weeds of so many others. Excellent mentality (again, seems like everybody is 4+ there),solid athlete, technique not there yet but close, endurance is on the low side which is the only significant flaw.

30. Algot Hakanson - 94%, 8.14, ??

Doubles again for this clay specialist who is further behind in rally play than the others.

31. William Todhunter - 94%, 8.17, ??

Relative laziness is the only real flaw, but he's not particularly special otherwhise. And right now, that's more than enough to be fatal.

37. Amrik Kasaravalli - 97%, 8.18, +0.11

Main difference between Kasaravalli and those who have already made the jump is that his serve isn't as good yet. With the quality ahead of him and the fact that he's the weakest I've had by a significant margin, I think his ceiling is to someday qualify for the WTF at the bottom of the Top 10 if all the others hang around. It's going to be an interesting and much different ride for Amrik.

70. Joao Narciso - 99%, 7.65, +0.35

Had a good surge this year, but needs another just like to even get close to escaping Challengers. I'm going to say it takes two years to make that happen. Pretty good athlete, but lots to do yet on the technique side.

203. Marcel Bonner - 95%, 7.83

As mentioned, a lot better than you'd think by looking at the ranking. Quality from the back, elite mentality (AGAIN!), and very good speed. I'd recommend a steady diet of challengers and serve training to bring that up; right now that weapon is at low-level futures level and attention should be paid. But Bonner can definitely be a guy who is a Top-32 pro despite the doubles diversion somewhere in his history.

283. Tommy Fitzpatrick - 99%, 7.02, +1.04

Growth slows down now for these guys. Fitzpatrick has reached his physical peak, and is just about ready to make the jump to Challengers. Few if any futures players will be a serious threat to him now.

384. Nasir Chittoor - 95%, 6.63, +0.99

As you might expect, Chittoor is on a similar path but not yet maxed-out physically. Wait a few months for that. He still needs more time in futures, but he and others will make the challenger jump at some point this year.

437. Ritwik Intodia - 95%, 6.68, +0.90

Right now, Intodia and Chittoor are very close in both ranking and playing ability. Endurance should make the difference for Nasir over time, but Intodia is no slouch.

553. Rakesh Kayeeda - 95%, 6.42, +0.88

Similar quality improvement from the slower Kayeeda.

817. Mark Smith - 97%, 6.76, ??

Middle of the pack aging for Smith, who has elite power and endurance, incredible talent(5.0), and even plays well in front of his home fans. A little slow, but he's definitely positioned as a major threat. Good example of the kind of player for whom amateurs would simply be a waste of time.

1128. Mike Ferry - 99%, 6.43, ??

Merely 'solid' as an athlete, Ferry is more the meteoric type.

1182. Satyagit Guha - 96%, 5.76, +0.84

As on-court results would indicate, almost actually ready for futures now. But not quite.

1981. George Petrov - 98%, 5.73, ??

Both Petrov and the unranked Timmy Lockhart are in basically the same boat of needing amateur matches to boost their form,and yesterday. Beyond that, Petrov seems a pretty average player who should aim to eventually be successful in futures and earn points there so that he can be replaced with someone better.