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It sounds like the night conversation went in the same direction as where I was at last night - that probability is pretty good that Chief is our Zombie. I would expect him to be the convert for Umbrella to have supported him over the last 1 1/2 days.
If I try to think like a converted Umbrella Zombie, then here is what I come up with:
- I know that I want to keep my Umbrella guys around, as they will support me with votes
- Therefore, I'll make my move for the win with the idea that STARS+Umbrella should be reduced to Umbrella as quickly as possible
- At that point it is anyones game. Umbrella should have been coordinating votes early and voting together late (when applicable) so voting record analysis will be useless once STARS are gone
- a Night 5 kill on LSG is selecting a target who is unlikely to be guarded while casting more suspicion on the guy I'm trying to set up for a fall - Spleen
- I can not offer up an Umbrella target with my "seer" reveal on Day 5 without tipping my hand to the other Umbrella members
- If there was another Zombie I would be taking a large risk offering him up as well, compared to offering up an uncleared STARS player
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