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Originally Posted by BishopMVP
Pitching WAR is pretty useless IMO. His 97/98/01/02/04 seasons were great, and he was hurt during 99/00/03. It was before I started paying attention to him, but the 95 & 97 seasons were when he made big jumps in K/9, and he put up that career high (and absurd) 11.3 K/9 in 97 at age 30, so I feel confident listing that as the start of when he became a different pitcher.
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How about looking at K/9. Yes, Schilling hit 11.3 in his age 30 year. The two years before that he was at 8.8 and 8.9 - very good numbers indeed (and he dealt with injuries in his age 29 season - '96). The year after he was 10.0. Excellent. In his age 32 and 33 seasons he was at 7.6 and 7.2. Then he goes to Arizona. In his 34 season he hits 10.3, then 11.0 in his age 35. In age 36, when also dealing with injuries ('03), he gets 10.4 K/9. And then he goes to Boston where he does 8.1, 8.4, and 8.1 in his age 37, 38, 39 years.
As late 30s increase in power was suspicious for hitters using PEDs, I contend it's suspicious for Schilling to increase his K/9 numbers in that way. 3 of his top 4 K/9 seasons came after he was 34. And if you want to blame injuries for his only 7.6 and 7.2 K/9 in his 32 and 33 seasons, then why does not that dampen his numbers in his age 29 season and 36 season?
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The age thing seems rather specious. Roy Halladay was better 31-34 than 27-30. Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman pitched without much if any dropoff until they were 42/43. John Smoltz turned back into a starter and had 3 of his best starting seasons at 38-40. Justin Verlander is back as a Cy Young candidate in his mid-30's after falling off in his early 30's.
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Mid 30s are different than Late 30s and have been for a while. In addition, relievers have always been able to pitch effectively later because they have far less wear and tear on their arms due their lesser innings pitched. And the same is true for Smoltz, who probably was effect so much later in his career than either Maddux or Glavine (who also generally followed the aging curve, with his best years in his early 30s and having a decline followed by one really good year when he was 36 to declining the rest of the way) due to having those three years where he was a reliever.