December 17, 2023
# 14 Louisville (8-1) at #5 Florida State (5-0)
TEAM: FSU|UL
OVR: 91|89
OFF: 91|90
DEF: 90|89
SHT: 93|94
REB: 92|92
COA: 91|99
Pitino is going to get his 900
th win this season, he's 895-344. Their loss is to #2 Florida. Their only wins over winning teams are Bucknell and Loyola Maryland. They went to overtime vs Chicago State last game at their place. But, they've got talent and can beat anyone it would appear. The loss to Florida was a 1 point road loss.
We do appear to be catching them at a good time. SF Cory Taft, rated 89 OVR, has a lower back injury and is out for two more weeks. Their backup SF is nowhere close to his level.
Scouting
PG Horace Attaway SO 71 OVR - 86 speed/82 quickness. 82 defense/80 steals. 85 hands/75 passing, both C+ only. 84 close/72 med/71 3/78 off the dribble. Awful awareness, 67 off/71 def. 6.3 ppg/7.2 apg, great assists feeding the post I assume.
SG Deron Dye JR 86 OVR 6'6, actually a SF 89 speed/86 quickness. 80 defense/69 steals. 86 close/84 med/90 3/83 off the dribble/90 in traffic. 80 off awareness/71 def awareness. WOW. Also, 89 defensive rebounding. A huge huge talent here. Just 6.6 ppg/2.9 rpg somehow, but I expect he'll do a lot more than that against us.
SF Laurie Gray SO 76 OVR 82 speed/81 quickness. 82 defense. 83 close/78 med/66 3/86 in traffic. Really a backup all the way. 3.7 ppg.
PF Brannon Douglas SR 88 OVR 6'8 PF 91 orb/89 drb. 79 post off/84 post def. 80 blocks, 87 steals(A, wow!). 95 close/89 in traffic. Good str, great awareness, 82 off awarenses/81 def awareness. Douglas is averaging 20.8 points/game, 6.1 rebounds, leading the team in scoring by quite a bit.
C Jerrold McCroskey JR 88 OVR 6'8 PF 93 orb/83 drb. 86 post off/79 post def. 90 close/85 med/80 3/87 in traffic. Great leaper, good strength, very good awareness (76 off/82 def). A complete player who can go shoot the 3 almost as well as he can hit a hook shot in the post. 13.2 ppg/5.3 rpg.
Two big questions going into todays game. Can Mayer play half as well against a team like Louisville as he has against Coppin State. If they play man, he'll have Gray on him so he'll have a huge edge there, but they have big boys in the post that makes a huge difference when driving the lane. The second... how will our backups do against a good team? Can they hold their own or do they get run over?
Unity is basically even, 69 for us, 63 for them.
Half
| Time
| FSU
| UL
| Notes
|
1
| 14:00
| 15
| 14
| McCants picks up two fouls in about 3 seconds, allowing louisville 5 points as they score, draw a foul, miss the FT, get the board, score again, draw a foul, and make this FT this time around. Their 76 rated SF, Gray, is killing us. He has their 3 point play, also two 3's and another bucket.
|
1
| 12:50
| 19
| 14
| Backups are in for us. It is once again Mayer's show, he leads us with 9. McClurkin and Day each have a 3, Millar and McCants each have one bucket inside.
|
1
| 7:20
| 29
| 25
| The backups are doing an alright job scoring, but the defense isn't really there. I get a timeout, the backups are tired out, or very close at least, and the starters aren't quite ready to come back in.
|
1
| 6:40
| 31
| 25
| Starters are back in now. I underestimate how much rest the timeouts give sometimes. The extra half minute does help anyway though. Jolly has a great stretch for the backups here, with 6 points all off solid looking post moves.
|
1
| 2:48
| 40
| 29
| McCants and Mayer are totally justifying the extra looks I'm giving them today, having now combined for 20 of our 40 points in building an 11 point lead. Timeout Louisville.
|
| HALF
| 48
| 32
| Mayer scores 6 of our last 8, drawing two fouls on their PF Douglas in transition, once driving right by him for a great looking 3 point play. We're playing good D for the most part, and Louisville went cold in the final few minutes, allowing us to end the half very strong. They're 12-31 from the field, 4-10 from 3. We are 17-29, 3-8 from 3, and have taken 14 free throws. Mayer is very very good at getting to the line when he gets by his man. He is 8-10 at the line.
Their SF Gray is 3-4 from 3, 14 points. Other than him they are all doing fairly awful. No one else has more than 5, and that's only SG dye. Past that its all 2 and 4.
On our end, Mayer has 18. McCants almost has a double double already, 8 points/9 boards. Day has 5. Jolly is 3-3 in the post for 6 points off the bench. So far so good!
|
2
| 15:27
| 58
| 40
| Timeout Louisville. We're rolling, heh. Mayer is up to 20, though he's probably not going to have a 50% day from the field, in part b/c I have been trying a few hmmm could he actually do this type of moves/shots that I would pass up in a close game. McCants has 10 points/13 boards now.
|
2
| 12:25
| 63
| 49
| 5 strraight for Louisville to cut the lead back under 15. Backups are in.
|
2
| 10:03
| 65
| 56
| Ugh, we let them cut it back under 10, and I get a timeout and will be taking a lot more time each possession until the starters are ready to go.
|
2
| 8:45
| 67
| 56
| Black hits a tough turnaround and we go back up 11. Timeout Louisville. That pretty much plays into our hands, as McClurkin, Day, and Millar are ready to come back in. McCants could but I know he couldn't go 9 minutes without becoming exhausted, I'll wait. Mayer will be more around the 7 minute mark.
|
2
| 7:45
| 71
| 56
| All starters are back now.
|
2
| 5:32
| 77
| 58
| And we're fully back in control, Louisville with another timeout.
|
We just have fun for the final 5 minutes, I think the closest they got it was 16.
#5 Florida State 90
#14 Louisville 70
Now, before we get too excited about blowing out a top 15 team, we have to remind ourselves that their top rated player, the player that would have been guarding Mayer instead of the chump they had out there instead, was injured today. That changed everything. Mayer for most of the game had this subpar backup SF, or a PF guarding him out on the perimeter. So we are still waiting to see Mayer perform against a truly quality defender. But still, this is very, very promising. Its not just the SF, its the two bigs standing in the lane behind him. They have quality big men, and Mayer manhandled them. He drew fouls like crazy, getting to the line 12 times. I cannot think of a single time that he attacked the rim and got blocked or otherwise was completely stuffed by their defense. In past years talented players like Barrett or Forte would drive into big men rated so highly and would just practically fall over at the sight of them, without even getting the ball up towards the rim. That isn't happening with Mayer at all.
Their SF, Gray, scores 19 today. This is one of those cases where the worst player on the other team has super high shot tendencies, and is only hitting marginally well. He took 17 shots for them. C McCrosky scored 17 on 8-12 shooting in the post, he was great.
McClurkin: 6 points (2-2 from 3)
Day: 8 points/5 assists (2-4 from 3)
Mayer: 32 points/3 boards/2 assists (11-23, 1-5 from 3, 9-12 from the line)
Millar: 4 points/6 boards
McCants: 20 points/15 boards (9-12 shooting)
Jolly: 8 points
Dearman: 5 points
I'm still running the same offense, same plays as last year. I'm not breaking out of that very often, I'm just more likely to break off a set play if I see McCants get good position in the post, more likely to have Mayer catch and drive instead of continue the play, etc. I'm hopeful this kind of success, maybe not to the extent of having McCants and Mayer combine for 52 points in a game, but this general success can continue in the ACC Season. Having great balance and finding the best shot regardless of the player can be effective like last year for us, but having a guy or two that can take over a game is a lot more fun, when its working at least
