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I think that the play here is for Biden to keep talking in terms of "I'm not going to make threats. I'm going to ask my colleagues and friends in the Senate to do the right thing." Continue to be the adult in the room. Continue to talk about confirming someone as a moral failing and he has faith that his friends can do better. If you threaten, then it becomes bothsides. If you simply say "the escalation should stop now for the good of the country," then you keep moral high ground.
Biden also need to make this about the ACA. The battle lines are already drawn on the question of whether the government has the power to force you to get an abortion or whether the Constitution protects reproductive freedom. You aren't really going to change minds on that question.
But if you make this about the 5th vote to take away protections for pre-existing conditions, you get the discussion back to Democrat-friendly topics like health care, the economy, whether people who get coronavirus complications should have access to health insurance, etc.
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