Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy
Once again, here is the premise of my argument:
1.) There must be at least three wolves in the game since there were 3 in a 9 person game and we have 12 in this game.
2.) One of the wolves (Hannibal) is dead, leaving 2+ wolves
3.) RendeR, scanned by the seer, is a known good in a game without a cunning wolf
If you (generic "you" reading this) are a villager then that leaves four untrusted. I'm putting in my matrix, but anyone who is a villager should just substitute me out for themselves when looking at the results to make sure they fully consider me (Hoopsguy).
Chief Rum\Path
Chief Rum\Alan
Cheif Rum\Packer Fanatic
Path\Alan
Path\Packer Fanatic
Alan\PackerFanatic
One of these six combos must be a pair of wolves. Which ones can you rationalize? Which ones do not make sense?
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Ok, then on my side I have the following combinations:
Hoopsguy\Chief Rum - possible
Hoopsguy\Path - maybe - the more I look at this though, Hoops did vote for path day 1 when it seemed like path was a goner, but if we're giving Chief a pass on being a teammate with Path for his vote, we should give a half-pass to hoops for something almost similar.
Hoopsguy\Packerfanatic - Possible
Chief Rum\Path - seems unlikely - Chief jumped onto the Path vote, adding additional chance that Path could be bad.
Chief Rum\Packer fanatic - seems unlikely - I don't think a wolf is going to risk too many chances at getting one voted out on a pure random game like this. Them voting each other day 1 gave 2 possible chances and doesn't make sense to try to buy trust in such a way in a game like this.
path\packerfanatic - possible
So if I want to go from a probability standpoint, it seems like my best options would be to vote either Hoopsguy or Packerfanatic today.. which are also the two people I have the least data for. I'm having a tough time believing that Path isn't a wolf though based on that day 1. So what is the reason it isn't Path/Packerfanatic? because Packer missed a vote on one day when Path and Hannibal both were voting me? I don't know how strong that reasoning is in my mind right now.