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Old 05-03-2011, 07:18 AM   #207
Narcizo
Pro Rookie
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Looking at things purely in terms of the votes made by the DV voters:

Narcizo - put in an early vote. I could have moved it until around 16:15 or so (and would probably have shifted it to mckerney or Chief had Bug not put his vote in), so I don't expect to be given a clear pass over that.

Bug - bit of a vote and run. I'm not sure second vote is the most condemning at this stage with DT having three votes. Packer and Jackal had both made it two votes to mckerney and chief so he could, presumably, stick his vote there to directly counter a move on DT. Still early days though and a wolf Bug (sounds nasty) might want there to be a spread of possible candidates to vote from there.

Chief - apparently there's been a lot of thought given to how you go about self-preservation as a wolf or as a villager that I had no idea about. Anyway Chief adds DV to the 3-vote tie of mckerney and DT. I'm not really clued in enough to know the ins and outs of the move there. Seems that if Chief is a wolf then he's protecting himself by saying "vote for one of these guys". Stick his vote on mckerney and the risk is that he's going to cause a two-horse race off between mckerney and DT with no other wolf able to influence things later on without looking dodgy. So, yeah I can see this being a wolf vote.

JAG - pushes DV ahead of the pack. Yeah, got to say that that's the weakest vote at the moment.

From an information-gathering point of view then, like JAG says, a Chief lynch gives us the most information. I would love for Chief to come up wolf because then we're in a really strong position. Therefore the pessimist in me says that I find it really hard to believe that that can be the case. I guess there are times where there's been two wolves on the block on day one but the odds must be pretty out there of it happening.

Based on other stuff. Bug has offered nothing and if I'm going to stick with my "target UTR guys" then he would get my vote. I'd guess the same sort of goes from a "which villager can we most afford to lose" viewpoint as I know JAG and Chief have a lot to offer as villagers while I don't know a whole heap about Bug.

Going to look through the thread again. Good thing about it being so short.
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