[Breeze]

Last Chance Meet @ Georgia Tech - 2/18/2012

Predictions

Bailey
Bailey is in a prime position to make a move this weekend. She is only swimming 4 events because she already has 6 cuts and we aren't going to swim the 100 Fly or the 500 Free, because we have seen several cases where young kids try these events only to adversely affect their strokes, probably due to fatigue. We'll plan on tackling these two events next year when Bailey is 10.

On all 4 of her events she is less than 2 seconds from getting her cut...therefore, assuming she is feeling ok and can breathe this weekend, I think she'll get at least 1 cut. Predicting which cut it will be is difficult, but if pressed I'd say her best chance is the 200 Free. She has cleaned up her freestyle form with her left arm and she is less than 2 seconds on a 200 yard swim, add to that the fact that this will be the second time she swims it and I think she'll understand what it takes from an effort standpoint to get the time needed.

I'd love to say she's going to get the 50 back, and I've basically predicted she is going to get it since the beginning of the season. However, I now believe that she is trying too hard on this stroke, rather than relaxing and racing, she is tightening up and this mental block will probably keep her at about the same time she's been posting. The 50 Free is easily attainable, but so much of that will be dependent on the dive - good dive, good shot. 100 Free I don't think she gets because it will be last race on her schedule and she'll either be exhausted (mentally as much as phsically) from the effort of the previous races, or if she's failed to get a cut coming into this race, she'll put too much pressure on herself and she won't get it.

Now for Bailey, while getting these cuts is nice and certainly a huge boost to self-esteem, it isn't terribly necessary. In fact, to be honest, even if she qualifies in all 4 events, she won't swim all of them next weekend at the state meet.

Bear
Unlike Bailey, Bear's chances of getting a cut is much more precarious. While he has more events to swim, he also isn't nearly as close. In fact, he only has 2 events that are around 1 second, and 1 of those is Breast, and he hasn't been swimming it as good lately as he did in the middle of the season (just isn't a natural stroke for him and he'll fight to get the form right on this event for years still).

Bear's best bet at a cut is the 50 Back. He has been pretty strong in this event recently. One of the biggest keys to his chance here is the start. He's been diving too deep and taking to long to get to the surface. A better start could be the 1 second he is missing. He'll also need to have a good turn. If his count is off going into the wall, or if he ends up on the wrong side with the count (meaning he as reached the stroke he needs to flip to his belly for the flip turn and the wrong arm is up), he may struggle to do it cleanly.

I'd say his next best chance is the 100 IM. Unfortunately, he'll swim the 200 free earlier in the day, and I don't know if he'll be recovered enough to get the 2 second time drop to meet the cut time. I do not believe Bear has a 2 second improvement in him for the 100 or 50 Free, and as I've mentioned above he isn't swimming Breast well right now so I don't expect a cut there either. He also won't get the 200 Free...he might be able to get a cut for the girls time, but he isn't going to swim a 2:46...

All and all I think Bear comes up empty tomorrow. He has had an awesome short course season, even the coaches have mentioned (without prompting from us) how impressive he's been, and they are really excited about his future, but I think these last few seconds are going to be too much for him to overcome. My only fear here is that Bailey kills it and Bear doesn't get a cut, and he starts to mope about it, adopting the "I'm the worst swimmer in the family" mantra he had earlier in the year, ignoring all the good he's done this season...

Brett
I'm not going to go into Brett's extra strokes, that he clearly doesn't have a chance to get a state cut in. In fact, I'm really not sure how he'll even do in those events. His form has improved significantly but his focus recently has been on breast, understanding his lone shot at a state cut was the 200. I hope he improves in his off strokes so we can maintain the momentum...but I'm not terribly concerned about them this weekend.

As for his 200 Breast...I was ready to predict that he would get the cut, until I found out the race wasn't going to occur until the evening session. This is a huge blow to his chances and I don't think words can express my level of disappointment with this arrangement. I'm not upset or angry with anyone, this is just a scheduling quirk that negatively impacts us and it is unfortunate.

This isn't to say Brett won't get the cut, but my prediction is he won't (and maybe that's my way of preparing myself for disappointment). For him to get the cut I figure he'll need to be sub 47 seconds on the opening 50, and around a 1:36 in the opening 100. Then if he can maintain his back half time he'll be right on the number. My bet is he'll finish in the 2:16s...