Originally Posted by Shoveler
I guess there are a couple potential ways for the village to win in this game.
1. The village lynches the wolves
2. The village shoots the wolves
3. The village lynches and shoots the wolves.
Now, if a vanilla villager is about to be lynched today, and they duke to a village hunter. The original vanilla villager is going to look suspicious, and most likely be lynched the next day. So in this situation, the village loses valuable time.
If someone other than the lynch leader dukes at the end of the day, that person is going to look suspicious and will be lynched on the next day.
Now, we could also assume that the person that was revealed as having duked could be shot by a hunter on the next day before the lynch, thereby saving the lynch vote for the village. But due to the rules regarding the first hunter using their ability is the only one for the day, we can't rely on having the duke shot dead to reveal their alignment.
Unless someone can offer up a good counter assessment of these abilities, I believe using either of them early in the game has a greater chance of hurting the village simply due to the odds of hitting other villagers.
As to font's point about hitting roled villagers, the odds are about as good as hitting a wolf. So at this point it is most likely that using these abilities end up clearing out the vanillas.
Typing this is probably moot. I would suspect the same as zinto that a vanilla duke is going to use their ability to save themselves and bend over the village in the process. But maybe we get lucky.
The only problem is late in the game we may have issues where the wolves can force a win with a hunter snipe or duke it to a villager. There's a lot more urgency to find wolves ASAP because we need to bring their numbers down before it gets too close for comfort. Assuming 3 wolves, 4-3 or 5-3 might be enough to force a win.