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Old 01-05-2017, 09:01 PM   #1
Maple Leafs
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Join Date: Jan 2002
What's the ideal strategy for this playoff football pool?

NFL playoff pools are fairly common, and in general we know the basic strategy: pick a team or two from each conference, load up on those players, and hope for a Superbowl matchup that gives you as many players as possible. If you can get a wildcard weekend team that plays four games instead of three, even better.

This one (from the very good Footballguys.com website that I'd be willing to bet a lot of you already use) has a bit of a twist to is. To be clear, I'm not looking for help with filling out an actual roster for the pool. I'm more interested in the game theory behind how to approach it

The rules:
Quote:
1. This is a survivor-style contest. After the first weekend, we cut to 4000. After the second weekend, 2000. After the third weekend, 1000. Scores reset each round. The Winner will be determined by points scored in the Super Bowl.
2. In the elimination rounds (i.e. all but the Super Bowl), only your two highest scoring players from each NFL team count toward your score. In the Super Bowl, all points from all players count.
3. Aside from the cap, there are no roster limits or positional requirements at all. Take only five players, or take 40. Take all QBs, or take none. It's up to you.
4. Except as noted in the scoring system (TEs, WRs, and RBs get different numbers of points per reception), positions are irrelevant in all rounds. Positions play no role in determining which players' scores count.
The cap is $250, and player values range from $40 (Le'Veon Bell) down to $2 or $3 for any number of guys who don't play much.

Obviously you still do the "focus on a few teams" thing, but beyond that, how do you pay this? Remember, you're trying to beat a few thousand people, so it's not like just getting Tom Brady and Ezekiel Elliott is going to make you the favorite.

The key wrinkle is that you can have as many or as few players as you want. Do you load up on a handful of elite guys, or sprinkle around as many lottery tickets as you can get? Do you even bother with kickers or defenses? I feel like smart people should be able to figure this out but I'm lost.
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Last edited by Maple Leafs : 01-05-2017 at 09:01 PM.
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