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Old 07-26-2016, 04:05 PM   #441
Brian Swartz
Grizzled Veteran
 
Join Date: May 2006
Race to the World Tour Finals
Post-Shanghai Update

In(4485 points required to qualify)

Girish Girsh -- 10,770
Antonin Iglar -- 10,020
Gustavo Caratti -- 9,340
Anil Mehul -- 8,175

Three weeks left until the field is determined, and only the top four have yet made it. Their ordering though at the end of the year is not yet finalized. Girsh's strength on the remaining indoor events at Paris and the World Tour Finals which will be held in Russia this year gives him a clear edge at maintaining the #1 spot, but he'll need to fend off Iglar. Mehul could still hold onto the #3 against Caratti, but he'll need a quality finish to do that as well.


Probable

Pierce Gaskell -- 4,380
Mugur Kinczllers -- 4,295

These two simply need one good event or a small slip by those who are below them. Both have upwards of a 95% chance I'd say, but they are not yet assured of their place.


Contenders

Bjorn Benda -- 3,730
Theodore Bourdet -- 3,475
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Elias Trulsen -- 3,405
Thiago Herrera -- 3,270

For the first time in a few seasons, we have some serious drama on our hands here. Four men vying for the last two spots basically, and Bourdet's surge over the last couple of weeks has him narrowly in as of right now. The others have been in middling form at best lately. Bourdet is a fine indoor player and I think he'll make it; Trulsen could, but he is probably on the outside looking in and it would be a hugely disappointing turn for him to miss out now. Herrera is only narrowly hanging on to hope.

Long Shots

Garreth McCuskey -- 2,995
Davide Poilblan -- 2,745
Agustin Herrera -- 2,695

It is not yet over for these three either, though they'll need an even bigger kick than Bourdet has shown to force their way into contention.


Coming Up ...

A trio of 250-level events are up this next week, which is actually nearly concluded at this juncture. Prakash Mooljee has entered the Kremlin Cup as part of his big finish, and a number of WTF hopefuls will aim to improve or solidify their standing.
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