February 15, 2020
Duke (13-9, 6-4 ACC) at Florida State (7-14, 3-7 ACC)
Knocking Duke down to 6-5 in ACC play would severely hurt their chances at a top 4 ACC finish, and there aren't many things I'd rather do than hurt Duke. They're rated 88 OVR (89 off/89 def/92 sht/86 reb/88 coach). Duke was rated 88 OVR last year and didn't start a single senior. They did lose an 88 rated Junior guard to the NBA. They are led by a stud PG who was the #1 recruit in the nation 2 seasons ago, hopefully he'll be leaving this year.
Duke's ACC losses are all to the better teams in the league... NC State, Boston College, Virginia Tech and Maryland. They pulled off a big win in Raleigh last week, and they have a non conference win over #7 Villanova. Their RPI is high but I don't know how a 13-9 record will play for them if they don't finish strong.
On the injury front, their star PG Ball has a pulled quad muscle,hopefully he'll be slowed. After our last couple simmed games, PG Forte and PF Sneed both have day to day injuries... a bruised heel for Forte and a pulled hammy for Sneed.
Scouting
PG Alfred Ball – SO – 90 OVR – 98 speed/90 quickness. 93 defense/85 steals. 86 hands/89 passing. 88 close/92 med/83 3/84 off the dribble. A- vertical/B dunking ability. A truly elite player. 14.1 ppg/4.0 apg. National freshman of the year last year. He's projected to go in the lottery this year and hopefully he'll jump on the chance.
SG Julio George – SR – 82 OVR – 91 speed/81 quickness. 85 defense/88 steals. 84 close/79 med/73 3. 83 off the dribble/81 in traffic. 8.5 ppg. A solid compliment to Ball and Gastel, though not a star himself.
SF Pedro Gastel – JR – 84 OVR – Gastel played PF this year, he's better off in his natural SF role. 6'6 – 76 defense/69 steals is a bit weak. Not a speedy guy either. 92 close/85 med/81 3/86 in traffic. 93 dunker(A), B- vert/B- str/C+ hustle. He's a coach on the floor as well. 13.0 ppg/5.2 rpg.
PF Reid Luiz – FR – 77 OVR – Natural SF way out of position. 6'5”, 76 orb/81 drb, not bad but we've got similar and more size. 68 post off/66 post defense. Hopefully Sneed can own him in the post. 81 close/81 in traffic. 6.2 ppg/4.6 rpg.
C Vitor Stefanov – SR – 75 OVR – 6'10” natural center. 80 orb/78 drb. 75 post offense/70 post defense. 95 close/84 in traffic. Just 6.2 ppg/4.0 rpg.
They have a couple backup guards rated right around 80 OVR who are 3 point shooting specialists. Ball and Forte both being injured will be interesting. Anything to slow down Ball though is good for me. With Gastel a coach on the floor we are at a 75-37 team unity disadvantage.
Sneed being banged up worries me a lot, if his inside shot is off as a result we rely way too much on Moye for offense. They have such weak post play too, we could really capitalize.
Half
| Time
| FSU
| DUKE
| Notes
|
1
| 15:00
| 11
| 5
| We get off to a fast 7-0 start, a Locklier basket then 5 points from Moye(3 point play and a foul inside). George hits 2 buckets for Duke to get them going, but we're off to a solid start. I'm running where I can when they miss but slowing down the half court set.
|
1
| 14:30
| 11
| 5
| Ball picks up foul #2 and sits. They've committed 5 already, lots of silly reach ins.
|
1
| 14:05
| 13
| 5
| Duke with a timeout after Moye drains another bucket. Moye with 9 now. Sneed and Locklier 2 each.
|
1
| 10:40
| 18
| 10
| Sneed with his 4th points and Forte a 3 as we keep our lead despite Duke scoring on a couple plays in a row. Backups are in.
|
1
| 7:50
| 25
| 14
| Alloway hits a 3 and we get a couple buckets inside to take a solid lead, Duke calls a timeout. They had Gastel on the bench in addition to Ball being out with Foul trouble. Gastel's back in.
|
1
| 4:50
| 28
| 21
| I get a timeout to get the starters back in.
|
| HALF
| 34
| 28
| They score the last 5 of the half and its a 6 point game. Duke is shooting 12-30, 3-10 from 3. We're 12-21, the FG discrepency due to free throws mostly, Duke commits 8 fouls and we shoot 10 Fts, they only shoot 2.
Duke gets 7 from Luz and Gastel, as well as backup guard Colter, one of their good shooters off the bench. We're led by 9 from Moye, though he's 0-3 from 3 today. Sneed, Locklier and Alloway all have 6.
|
2
| 15:20
| 46
| 35
| Duke cuts it to 3, 36-33, before we go on a tear to get it up to 11. Moye with a 3, Sneed has 2 buckets and Locklier 1 inside, and Ozier just drove by/through Ball in transition, getting a 3 point play and Ball's 3rd foul in the process. Duke with a timeout.
|
2
| 13:15
| 51
| 35
| Without Ball on the floor for Duke it feels like we're pretty much as good as they are, with the advantage of a legitimate post game.
|
2
| 11:10
| 56
| 37
| We are just dominating Duke. Backups are in. We're entering “might not need to score again at all” territory.
|
2
| 8:45
| 63
| 40
| Duke timeout. Go go FSU!
|
I am a bit conservative about quick simming the rest of the game, I usually do that with a big lead and a talent edge. But when its a 26 point game with 4:30 to go I figure its a safe bet.
Florida State 77
Duke 57
We shoot an awesome 59% for the game and hold duke to 38%. After only having a 12-9 rebounding edge in the first half we dominate the second half and end up with a 30-17 edge on the boards. Of course us shooting so well has a big impact there.
Their star PG, Ball, being injured and a bit slow(though I couldn't clearly tell in game I am making the assumption), and only playing 17 minutes due to foul troubles made a huge difference today. They get 12 from PF Luz and 12 from backup guard Colter.
Forte: 8 points
Moye: 20 points/5 boards
Ozier: 5 points/4 boards
Sneed: 11 points/4 boards
Locklier: 10 points/7 boards
Alloway: 13 points
Alloway with another solid, consistent game off the bench, he shoots 4-7/2-5 from 3 and hits a few free throws. Sneed and Locklier combine to shoot 9-16 and score 21 points, a solid performance inside.