Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim G.
I would have put the Republican odds at about 1,000-to-1 a year ago.
Now that they've nominated someone who appeals to independents, and the Democrats have had a very divisive and whimsical primary, I'd say it's more like 3-to-1 against McCain right now. Still a tough road, but not the miracle long shot it once was.
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I disagree with this assessment only in that it is never 1,000-to-1 in a presidential campaign -- when the most critical factor you will be dealing with -- the candidates -- are a complete unknown.
I do agree with your point that it is easier to see how Obama wins this race than McCain, although I'd take McCain with the odds you are giving. A lot has to go right in the next couple of months for Obama to win.
Most importantly in the near term, HRC has to fully commit to supporting Obama. Obama needs her supporters on board now to start filling out the state-by-state organizations he is going to need be effective in key states. Her organizational supporters in OH and FL, for example, will be critical.