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SportsDino · 01-15-2009, 11:58 AM

Have to agree with Flasch, in my opinion all past values are suspect (although if we are talking traditional economics here, past values SHOULD NOT MATTER, the history is dead and not a perfect predictor of the future and all that jazz).

Most of my valuations I try to take into account short term debt issues since the mention of the 'credit freeze'. A lot of companies, if they survive that, will probably still be around for whatever rebound that occurs. Also don't assume that the current price is necessary the bottom, there are quite a few stocks I still see losing some weight, and a couple where i put their 'recovery' price below their current price (as in after the fall and bounce to normal they will still trade at a lower share price because they haven't shed all of their fictional inflated value yet).

Finally, this is my particular gambit and not for everyone, but because price targets are often hard (and sometimes just pulled from no where)... I have a tendency to set up automatic cutoffs where I would be comfortable with a short term gain (say any boost over 10%, or so on, relative to confidence in the short term future of stock). If you are looking for ultra long term and don't want to bother with transaction costs, of course ignore that altogether, but if you have been playing ups and downs, it is slightly more reliable than halting for a predicted target and suffering the short term ups and downs. Especially with volatility, you might trigger a 10% gain, bounce out, it might fall a couple days later, you get back in, and then another bounce and profit taking.... rinse and repeat. If you are willing to take the chance that it will go up and keep going up and that you are risking missing the boat... well it can give you a few mini-gains for a large gain, even though the stock price is only slowly trending up overall.

I don't consider this so much of a stock tip as a theoretical game, so I don't feel bad about revealing it, there are of course downside risks so I'll be happy to explain further (and feel free to attack the idea as complete shit, I've got buddies that point out problems and once in a while I find a new variant that is even better for certain situations).

01-15-2009, 11:58 AM	#31
SportsDino College Prospect Join Date: Oct 2001	Have to agree with Flasch, in my opinion all past values are suspect (although if we are talking traditional economics here, past values SHOULD NOT MATTER, the history is dead and not a perfect predictor of the future and all that jazz). Most of my valuations I try to take into account short term debt issues since the mention of the 'credit freeze'. A lot of companies, if they survive that, will probably still be around for whatever rebound that occurs. Also don't assume that the current price is necessary the bottom, there are quite a few stocks I still see losing some weight, and a couple where i put their 'recovery' price below their current price (as in after the fall and bounce to normal they will still trade at a lower share price because they haven't shed all of their fictional inflated value yet). Finally, this is my particular gambit and not for everyone, but because price targets are often hard (and sometimes just pulled from no where)... I have a tendency to set up automatic cutoffs where I would be comfortable with a short term gain (say any boost over 10%, or so on, relative to confidence in the short term future of stock). If you are looking for ultra long term and don't want to bother with transaction costs, of course ignore that altogether, but if you have been playing ups and downs, it is slightly more reliable than halting for a predicted target and suffering the short term ups and downs. Especially with volatility, you might trigger a 10% gain, bounce out, it might fall a couple days later, you get back in, and then another bounce and profit taking.... rinse and repeat. If you are willing to take the chance that it will go up and keep going up and that you are risking missing the boat... well it can give you a few mini-gains for a large gain, even though the stock price is only slowly trending up overall. I don't consider this so much of a stock tip as a theoretical game, so I don't feel bad about revealing it, there are of course downside risks so I'll be happy to explain further (and feel free to attack the idea as complete shit, I've got buddies that point out problems and once in a while I find a new variant that is even better for certain situations).