[Brian Swartz]

2014/15 Preseason & Outlook

Rankings

US National Team -- 20th(-4)
Indonesian National Team -- 174th(-4)
Indonesian Super League -- 27th(-3)
Premier Division -- 36th(-8)
First Division -- 83rd(-3)
Second Division -- 105th(-2)

A horrible situation in Indonesian has managed to get worse. Super. Indonesia will be participating in the AFF this year.

CLUB FACTS

National Ranking: 137th(+7)
Season Tickets: 64(-1)
Profit/Loss -- 1.2B deficit, 17% of turnover
Value -- 0(5.25B loan debt) -- unchanged
Ticket prices -- 29,706(unchanged)
Media Prediction -- 11th(down from 9th)

So much for our new stadium 'generating excitement'. We are still dead-last in First Division, and 18 Second Division clubs are more well known than us. We still really suck, we just really suck slightly less than before.

The media doesn't even share that optimism, picking us to finish exactly where we did last season.

PERSONAL

Professional Approval: 15.1%(+0.1%)
Local Name Recognition -- 43.7%(+19.7%)
Global Name Recognition -- 0.5%(+0.5%)

The mere fact of having a job of any kind and(by the hair of my chin) not getting fired from it(yet) has improved my situation a bit. It was still a bad year, just not quite as bad as most thought I would have, those few who bothered to consider my situation at all that is.


ROSTER -- FIRST LOOK

First, it must be said that the evaluations by assistant PJ Bob indicate that we just basically didn't have as much talent as we thought we did last year. Most of the players just weren't as good as we thought they were. On a good First Division club, except for Yogi everybody would just be a backup -- referring to the returning players here. We will have to stake our claim on the proposition that having more coverage/depth will allow us to overcome those shortcomings. The simple fact of the matter is that better players didn't want to sign with us due in most cases to the fact that Persigubin is a club that doesn't have a reputation of being a solid First Division club. We need to scratch and claw to establish ourselves before we can do much of anything about that, and find a way to make it work.

Teamwork, Aggression, Work Rate are strengths: decisions, passing, strength weaknesses.


Keepers

Ferminus(30, 2.3M)
Roni Setia(17, 1M)

Progression: Both keepers should be marginally improved over last season. Other than that, nothing's changed. We still think Setia has significant potential.

Assessment: Overall credible but a little below average. Command and one-on-ones are still the biggest weaknesses, kicking and much-improved aerial ability the biggest strengths.

Defense

DR Dahrul Topansyah Saragih(25, 2.2M)
DC Iskandar Muda(28, 1.3M)
DCR Ben Onisius Benoni Patay(28, 1.7M)
DL Ignasius Kasipmabin(36, 1M)
DR Piterius Piter Urwan(31, 1.5M)
DRCL Adi Eko Prasetyo(25, 1M)
DL Ferry Kombo(19, 2.75M)

Progression: We have seven defenders instead of five. I don't think any of them are as good as Sutiono, so we lost some ground there but should have a much better chance at finding a solid group of four here. Last season we had to play guys out of position fairly often and were usually stuck with slumping players like Fitriandi. Young Kombo has the edge on Prasetyo for the starting spot on the left, Muda and Patay will likely go in the middle, and Saragih is probably the best of the punch on the right. We'll also be working on improving the vesatility of Prasetyo(learning the left spot) and Saragih(learning the center spot).

It looks like our top returning player(Urwan) is on the bench for now. That could be a strong indication if it stays that way.

Assessment: Marking is a strength now and much-improved, tackling and esp. acceleration where we are in the top quarter of First Division clubs are the biggest plusses. The defense is still very weak in the air, and on the whole still classifies as below average.


Midfield

MC Frans Yarangga(27, 2.75M)
MC Herlan(24, 1.3M)
MC Dodi Saputra(28, 1.2M)
MRC Patrick Adie(35, 1.3M)
MLC Melianus Ningmabin(31, 1.8M)

Progression: We're still really weak on the left where we no longer consider Ningmabin to even be worthy of playing at this level -- but he's the only option. Adie is passable on the right, and we'll be much better than before in the middle with Yarangga pushed by Herlan and Saputra, one of whom can play if we want to go four wide. Simply going with a narrow three in the middle is also an option, which would leave Adie/Ningmabin as our bench.

The overall talent here is much better than last year though, no doubt about it, five bodies instead of three as well.

Assessment: Good technique and long-range shooting ability to complement the scoring efforts of the attacking corps. We have one of the worst tackling midfields in all of First Division, but that's really the only big weakness with decision-making also not impressive -- overall this unit is average or better, a huge improvement. The two new additions appear to be major upgrades in that sense.


Attack

AMC/ST Imam Bayhaqi(21, 2M)
AMC/ST Fabian Yogi(30, 3.75M)
ST Engel Ewangin(37, 3.5M)
AMC/ST Yustinus Oropka(29, 1.5M)
AMC/ST Pamungkas Yuli Sutanto(17, 900k)

Progression: The development of Sutanto will hopefully continue, and Bayhaqi should replace most of what we got from Uropmabin last year. An added benefit is he has a much higher ceiling. We have four AMC/ST combo players, three of which are better at the attacking midfield position and the fourth(Oropka) is equally bad at both.

Assessment: We're fast and decent in the air, but not great acceleration or movement off the ball. Anticipation and finishing both close and long-range are all very average, and that's how I view the group as a whole also.


Overall: We're much better on the attacking half than the defensive half, and once again will be a counterattacking club. With a larger and for the most part deeper squad, we will be able to be a bit more flexible than last year. The 4-3-1-2 will still feature as our most attacking variant, with a 4-4-1-1 and 5-4-1/5-3-1-1 also in the cards for more conservative play.

We have double the players who appear to have it what it takes to become stars in this league that we had last year. To GK Roni Setia and AMC Pamungkas Yuli Sutanto we have added AMC Imam Bayhaqi and DL Ferry Kombo. All are in the 17-21 range. Hopefully they can grow together and do some special things. But if we don't get six points from our first five matches, I won't get to concern myself with that.

Semi-Random Preseason Notes

** Ningmabin doesn't train well, apparently thinking he doesn't need to apply himself anymore. On the other hand, Kasipmabin and Ewangin do quite well. It appears the veteran striker wants to go out
with a bang. Among the youngsters, Sutanto and Bayhaqi also impress.
** Uropmabin is now officially gone. The fans do not approve and are saddened by his departure(35% approval). They're not wrong -- the way I mishandled his contract situation was my biggest screwup last year. I can only hope Bayhaqi makes people forget him.
** Low player bonuses assigned due to financial problems and the payroll being over-budget. Ningmabin, Kasipmabin, Sutanto, and Herlan did not react well, most of the squad is fine. We'll have to watch those guys.
** We adjust to a small, narrow pitch this year as our strategy depends heavily on playing through the middle: decreasing the impact of wide players can only help us.
** Adie continues to have injury problems. A late September torn calf muscle sidelines him for a majority of the year. He's been our most injury-prone player and his last chance to do anything of significance of Persibugin may have just ended: I don't expect him to be back. His 1.3M contract isn't much, but he'll be 36 next year and can't stay healthy.
** Errors in defense have continued during the friendlies so our ability to keep opponents off the board is a big question mark.
** Proving the accuracy of the thread title, a week before the start of the season a I realized I had the match training slider set wrong ... I was spending no time instead of max time on our tactics. I knew we should have been making faster progress .... **swears at self in disgust**

Well it's finally here. Six points in five games, or my butt is gone and possibly my career over. Adie is our only injury to concern ourselves with. We will have the first, third, and fifth of that set at home, which is a bit of a break. I feel very good about what happened with the squad over the off-season. We're deeper, more balanced, and have more talent for the future. Bayhaqi should ease the loss of Uropmabin, and I really like the athleticism and dynamic addition that Saragih looks like he can provide -- he's contributing nicely to our offense.