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Raiders Army · 08-26-2005, 06:36 PM

This is what I propose: the wolves and mafia don't know who the others are.

The wolves don't know who the mafia are and can't communicate with them.
The mafia are the same.

The victory conditions for them are that they need to wipe the other faction out and the villagers.

This is why there is no reveal for the night kills. We don't know how many are out there, and neither do they. This is also why there were two seers (well, an investigator and a seer) who could not see both factions.

Upon this logic, I think we can do a vote analysis from yesterday and today. The ones who piled on yesterday early were probably wolves (since they knew they weren't voting for another wolf and they could possibly take out a mafia). Likewise, the ones who piled on today were probably mafia (since they knew they weren't voting for another member of the mafia and they could possibly take out a wolf).

Here is the voting pattern I see for wolves:

saldana and Mr. Wednesday (a known wolf (to me and will be to you)) piled early on yesterday. They also argued against me today. I'm not quite so sure about Blade.

For mafia:

MrBug and RealDeal piled on today but didn't pile on as quickly yesterday (until it was pretty much a done deal).

Now I know I'm throwing this out there a little early, and I accuse three additional people to when I did before, but this is it. Hopefully the rest of you will see the logic in this...if you're still sticking with me. If people switch their votes, then I'm a goner and this theory needs to get out.

Regardless, I'm going to log off soon and I don't know if I'll be back on before 9. If I make it through the lynch vote, I hope the bodyguard protects me tonight (it's okay if you don't so we can keep them guessing as to whether to kill me or not).

I know with the names I mentioned there is probably at least one innocent person on my list (possibly two), but this is my best analysis at this point.

08-26-2005, 06:36 PM	#430
Raiders Army Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: The Black Hole	This is what I propose: the wolves and mafia don't know who the others are. The wolves don't know who the mafia are and can't communicate with them. The mafia are the same. The victory conditions for them are that they need to wipe the other faction out and the villagers. This is why there is no reveal for the night kills. We don't know how many are out there, and neither do they. This is also why there were two seers (well, an investigator and a seer) who could not see both factions. Upon this logic, I think we can do a vote analysis from yesterday and today. The ones who piled on yesterday early were probably wolves (since they knew they weren't voting for another wolf and they could possibly take out a mafia). Likewise, the ones who piled on today were probably mafia (since they knew they weren't voting for another member of the mafia and they could possibly take out a wolf). Here is the voting pattern I see for wolves: saldana and Mr. Wednesday (a known wolf (to me and will be to you)) piled early on yesterday. They also argued against me today. I'm not quite so sure about Blade. For mafia: MrBug and RealDeal piled on today but didn't pile on as quickly yesterday (until it was pretty much a done deal). Now I know I'm throwing this out there a little early, and I accuse three additional people to when I did before, but this is it. Hopefully the rest of you will see the logic in this...if you're still sticking with me. If people switch their votes, then I'm a goner and this theory needs to get out. Regardless, I'm going to log off soon and I don't know if I'll be back on before 9. If I make it through the lynch vote, I hope the bodyguard protects me tonight (it's okay if you don't so we can keep them guessing as to whether to kill me or not). I know with the names I mentioned there is probably at least one innocent person on my list (possibly two), but this is my best analysis at this point.