[Brian Swartz]

During the unpleasantness of our WTC loss to Austria, I noticed that Anil Mehul had crossed a threshold for the first time. He's now entered the third of the five career stages in Rocking Rackets(as defined by me). This seemed a good time to describe these stages as it's the first time I'm going through the process with a strong player.

First Stage: Rapid Improvement The skills of a young player increase as does his physical maturity, allowing him to access more and more of his potential. From entering the junior tour at age 14, and of course even before that really, all players spend several years in this stage.

Second Stage: Seasoning, with Modest Improvement Once full physical maturity hits, the age varies depending on the player but with the long-term view and late-bloomers like Mehul and Girsh that make the best professionals, it's usually sometime around age 20 that this begins. The technical skillset continues to improve, but the physical aspect won't get any better. This is the point when the most training can be done, and therefore at which it is most important to have a trainer since professional and practice tournaments are not enough to keep them fully busy and engaged. This is the stage where Mehul has been until the last week or two.

Third Stage: Beginnings of physical decline, slow improvement. This stage, which usually lasts another several years and is basically the player's prime, is defined by the beginnings of decline in the physical skills. Endurance, which governs how tired a player gets from training, is affected at double the rate so eventually there will be a significant effect on how much the body recovers after training, further retarding development. It's very gradual at this stage and continued experience and progression of the player's understanding of the game, consistency in shotmaking, etc. are able to more than overcome the effects of Father Time. The player will continue to get better, but not as quickly as before since the better one gets the more effort is required to improve that little bit more, and erosion due to the fact that athletic ability is just starting to wane bit by tiny bit means that more and more it is the technical skills that must be relied upon.

Most reach this sooner than Mehul, but by age 23(he's 22 and a half) it has caught up with everyone. He has 635 career matches, 331 as a junior and nearly as many with 304 as a pro, and the miles you put on your body catch up with everyone. Manohar, by comparison, even though a far less successful player, has over a thousand matches now and this doesn't include all the practice and training, just official tournaments. Nobody is immune to the ticking clock, you can only achieve what you can while the body allows it. Usually this runs until some point in the late 20s.

As an idea of the numbers, entering the tie against Austria Mehul was at a career-high 31st. Only two players(18th-ranked Antonin Iglar and 27th-ranked John Condon) above him were younger. Meanwhile, just over half(16 of 30) of those above him are 28 or older, definitely on the decline phase of their career or at the very least about to embark on it. Several have passed 30 years of age. At this point, he'll continue to move up for a while merely by holding off the younger players after him, and just letting the vets slide on by during their twilight. Speaking of which, that brings up:

Fourth Stage: Increasing decline. Eventually, the body's athletic ability decreases to the point where technical improvements can no longer compensate. At this point, the downside of a player's career has been reached and all that can be done is to minimize the rate of decline. Generally speaking it's a process that accelerates over time. Manohar of course is nearing the end of his fall. A world-class player can still remain relevant for a few years -- Gorritepe as an extreme example is still Top 10 and a threat at the smaller 500 and 250-level professional events some 5 years or more after reaching his peak -- but nobody can reverse or stall he process entirely. By the time a player reaches the mid-30s, no matter how good they once were they are no longer relevant at the highest levels of the international stage. This will last until age 40, when all players auto-retire if they haven't chosen to so sooner.

Fifth Stage: Training others. A considerable amount of experience must be built up to become a trainer(I tested this out with Manohar and it took him half of year of not investing in any other improvement to acquire the necessary amount), which as mentioned above must be done prior to turning 40. A player who becomes a trainer can remain in that role until age 60, and is invaluable to the development of strong players in particular during the latter part of their first stage as well as the second and third stages. Eventually, by the later parts of the fourth stage, endurance will decline enough that trainers are no longer needed but for most of a top player's career they are beneficial. Lesser players, who often simply don't have the physical durability i.e. endurance to train as much, don't need the tutelage to nearly the same degree.

This may be of use to those of you who've signed up: I find the process of discovery interesting.