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I think that would be 2nd level thinking on my part, or 3rd level thinking on your part. But seriously, as a bad guy my biggest goal is to randomize my results in the eyes of the good guys. Go where there won't be protection, establish a pattern of kills that don't indicate "Oh, Hoops would want this person dead becasuse of Reason X". With that in mind, I might go against the grain once in awhile just to show I'm capable of it.
But not this game.
As far as me being alive on Day 3, a number of my early deaths are when you are a wolf and kill me early (see last game). This is one of the reasons I don't think you are a wolf this game right now. You would just dispatch of me at night rather than getting into any kind of daytime confrontation with me - less messy that way, particularly in a game without a clearly defined bodyguard role.
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