Quote:
Originally Posted by PurdueBrad
I'm not going to go down fighting for DT, I just think it is a mistake to look there just because he hasn't shown up. I believe that much more often than not, this move nets a villager. I know what I am, I don't believe the no-show is a wolf, that means I have a 2 in 7 chance of hitting a wolf here (approximately 28.5%). I would much rather take this chance.
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Of course it hits a villager more often though, no matter what we have an 80% chance (more if you factor in the wolves being able to manipulate things) of hitting a villager. I don't think given the situation of a Monday morning no show that it has any impact on him being a wolf or not. And I think it's dangerous to assume going forward (whether we lynch him or not) that he is good just because he didn't show over the weekend or on Monday morning.