[MIJB#19]

General Manager Notes: Statistical proof of our progress?
Well, we're 13 weeks into the season and have 3 home games to go against team with 10-3, 7-6 and 1-12 records. When you're 6-7, people would expect you to go 2-1 in that series. Right now, I only dare to hope on 1 win and make us at least 7-9 for the season. 9-7 would be really cool, but it's not likely, though we don't have draft picks to compensate our losses.


Schedule
w01 vs Gothenburg (L 12-27) - Giants are 6-7 and have little hope for the playoffs
w02 at Frederick (W 27-24) - Red Menace are 6-7 and hope to stay in the race for NAC #6 seed
w03 at Fort Worth (W 20-14) - Fury ar 6-7 and have little hope for the playoffs
w04 open weekend
w05 vs Tucker (L 9-10) - Tigers are 7-6 and hope to stay in the race for AOC #6 seed
w06 at Georgia (L 24-27 OT) - Gridlock are 4-9 and still building up their team good 2006 draft positions
w07 at Paris (L 3-31) - Musketeers are 1-12 and this game could have saved their pride
w08 vs Conyers (W 21-17) - Condors are 9-4 and favorites for the #2 seed in the AOC
w09 at Bordeaux (L 13-16) - Vineyards are 10-3 and the best team in the AOC
w10 at Orlando (W 17-10) - Knights are 9-4 and still in the race for a division title
w11 at Gothenburg (L 9-19) - Giants are 6-7 and have little hope for the playoffs
w12 vs Brooklyn (W 24-9) - Fightin' Bums are 4-9 and their young players are improving
w13 vs Rochester (L 10-15) - Lake Monsters are 8-5 and still hold the division lead
w14 at Chesapeake (W 17-7) - Chitterlings are 10-3 and still hold #2 seed in the NAC
w15 vs Bordeaux (not played) - Vineyards are 10-3 and the best team in the AOC
w16 vs Astoria (not played) - Heroes are 7-6 and in the lead for the last NAC playoff ticket
w17 vs Paris (not played) - Musketeers are 1-12 and earlier win against us saved their pride

I think we had a tough schedule so far and for a mediocre team at best, being 6-7 is good. What strikes me is that we are 3-1 against 9-4 or better teams, but just 2-4 against 6-7 to 8-5 teams and 1-2 against teams of 4-9 or worse. If I look to how the games went, the Conyers game should have been a loss, the Tucker game a victory and so should the Georgia game. The road game at Gothenburg included the loss of QB McDavid at half time, which puts that game in some other daylight as well. Cancel these four games and we'd still be 5-4, thus mediocre. Still, going from 1-15 (league punch bag, doormat, toilet paper, whatever) to possibly the weirdest mediocre team in the league, it's a big improvement.


Team Stats

passing game
50.3 comp% (30) -> 52.3 comp% (28)
189 yd/game (18) -> 180 yd/game (21)
1.3 td/game (10) -> 0.9 td/game (22)

rushing game
102 yd/game (27) -> 108 yd/game (20)
4.0 yd/carry (16) -> 3.7 yd/carry (26)
0.3 td/game (28) -> 0.6 td/game (15)

offensive analysis
Looking at the stats, the progress on the rushing or passing game are cancelled out by downfall in the other game. Of course, this all has to do with last season's catch up pass heavy offense. Our major improvement on offense is that we cut on turnovers and mainly on lost fumbles. Still, the reason for improvement in wins is hardly to be found on this side of the ball.


pass defense
62.6 comp% (31) -> 56.6 comp% (22)
170 yd/game (4) -> 224 yd/game (27)
1.0 td/game (16) -> 1.1 td/game (18)

run defense
139 yd/game (32) -> 103 yd/game (9)
4.2 yd/carry (23) -> 3.7 yd/carry (9)
1.0 td/game (32) -> 0.5 td/game (10)

defensive analysis
What happened here? We went from arguably the worst run defense to a top10 run stopper across the board. Our #4 ranked pass defense in yards last season was a bit of a fluke as opponents could easily run for clock management as we were often trailing most of the game. Our pass rush improved enough to make the opposing passing game one of risks. We have moved up in the fumbles forcing categories and the yards per game has been hurt by a couple of late pass heavy games and three player of the week passing performances.


Overall Thoughts
One, our run defense increased a lot and that helped us to keep opponents from scoring in the red zone. Sure, we allowed 50 yards passing more, but we've seen a couple of games where the opponent had a very good quarterback passing a lot and gaining yards. We stopped them in the red zone. Passsing yards totals don't tell you what happened there.

Two, we are a team with the least penalties in the league and have a decent special teams unit who help us to get into good positions and make the opponent have to work a little bit harder. The game against Chesapeake was a very good example of what it does. Our average third down distance was 6 yards, the Chitterlings' average was 13 yards.

Three, turnovers make a difference. It's always been my #1 philosophy to football and as much as people try to convince me with stats and correlations, the gut feeling says turnovers make or break a game. Face it, me moved from the last ranked team in turnover margin to the middle of the pack and, voilá, our winning percentage made the same jump.

Four, cohesion is important. Well, not everybody believes in it, but my team is said to be the most cohesive in the league in both the backfield and the defensive front. Our offensive line is also ranked very high, even though we have 3 new starters this year, not counting Alvin Causey. Our secondary is obviously not so cohesive with three new starters, but recently we sacrificded Wiley McGhee in favor of Lincoln Gilmore and that should help there.


Future Prospect?
Well, we'll be able to keep the 2005 roster together with possibly 5 to 10 changes, all being improvements in talent, except maybe the release of some unneeded overpaid players. Our young players are starting and continue to improve. In 2006, guys like Wells, Gomez, Lyon, Harris and Reiser could be big names in the league. Not to mention that we'll have a more and more improved OL.

I can give you a lost of players who could be dealt away next season, but I'll keep it to the usual suspects: FB Vincent Lopez, TE Jerry Aubrey, DT Andrew King, LB Matt Sellers, FS Pery Francis and SS Wiley McGhee. Lopez and Aubrey are overshadowed by younger players and are still startable elsewhere in the league. Francis and McGhee are startable too, yet have the bad luck of having competition at their position. King is a leader, but is unhappy and either he or John Bryant will have to go. Matt Sellers has great potential in run stopping, but with Cody Cluff in front of him, he's not getting the time to develop here.

2006, the season to be? I hope so, but I fear that we won't be there yet in 2006. Thing is, for 2007 I expect a bigger turnover in players. So with this team, 2006 has to be the season to become a winner. In 2007, I fear we'll be saying goodbye to up to three key players and fitting in a couple of rookies once again. And those wondering how we'll do in the 2006 draft, you know me. For the 2005 draft, I've been dealing with first round picks like with Pokémon trading cards and I will have the time to be very active. Masters of Trading, we'll be once again, though quality will go over quantity this time.