Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgfan
I recognize how difficult it is to adjust schedules given how far in advance they are typically put together, and the reality that blue bloods have little incentive to schedule a high-performing mid major like UCF. So the tough truth is, yes, given a not particularly rigorous schedule, they stand little chance of making the CFP. But I’m failing to see how that’s a bad thing. Given the much wider the disparity is between the best and the worst in FBS football compared to the NFL, schedule difficulty should matter.
Now if UCF was being evaluated as a top-4 team by advanced metrics like FEI, S&P and even Sagarin then they could plead their case. But their best ranking among those is 6th in FEI and as low as 20th by Sagarin.
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S&P is designed the best as far as giving mid-majors a chance at reaching the top 4 in their metric. Their strength of record component is a huge improvement over the one used by FEI in that it considers winning margin.
Basically S&P leaves the door open for a team playing a very weak schedule to be a top 4 team, but you'd better look like a top 4 team against that schedule. Simply winning games isn't enough when you're playing a bottom 20 schedule.