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Old 07-20-2010, 10:05 PM   #160
hoopsguy
General Manager
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
EF, you remain my #1 suspect for a wolf. We had three men in the vote and I know I was clean. The wolves would have thought Schmidty was clean as well.

What are chances of three non-wolves in run-off?
Assuming two wolves out of 11 starting (cultist=villager for this math)

9/11*8/10*7/9 = 51% all villagers

Coin toss. But with two cleared in my eyes (me + Schmidty) you are 100% the wolf in that scenario. So I'm playing a 49% probability, plus a dose of gut on top of it.

VOTE EAGLEFAN
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