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Brian Swartz · 09-24-2019, 03:22 AM

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1. Nicolas Perez - 91%, 8.68 (-0.04)

Theoretically, Nicolas should basically be at peak and not declining just yet. Either this small dip is in the 'rounding margin', or perhaps it is merely a case of him having had such high technique that training can't keep up with it. I've never had anyone with the levels he's reached, so he may be just beginning the decline phase a bit sooner than I anticipated. Even if so, it should be very slow for at least this year.

2. Harald Wentz - 92%, 8.64 (+0.01)

My that's close between these two. Wentz is younger but aging faster, and has gone all-in on the serve (4.5) to detriment of skill (4.8). Also, management is using two different trainers on him (4.7 and 5.0) because ?? Despite all the weirdness, the numbers say a really close battle might be had for the #1 this year. I still favor Perez though. I think he's just had a bad couple of months.

3. Tobias Velilla - 94%, 8.56 (+0.13)

Good improvements continue for Velilla, with the same management, approach, and massive serve as Wentz. What he doesn't have is the same athleticism, but he's mostly made up for that now. Maybe I was premature in calling for his decline ... maybe not. It's real close at the top.

4. Calisto Aviles - 93%, 8.63 (+0.08)

Wow. Yet another high-serve, relatively low-skill contender pressing in. Aviles is right there knocking on the door as well.

5. Chisulo Mpakati - 92%, 8.62 (+0.02)

I still see no good reason for Mpakati not to be back in the thick of things. Just needs to stop being a tool.

6. Il-Sung Jung - 92%, 8.81 (+0.10)

I did the math twice here. Guess who's back to being on-paper best player in the world ... and won't play like it because he thinks doubles are cool.

7. Lucas Perez - 91%, 8.39 (+0.05)

This supports the idea that Lucas just got hot at times this year. He doesn't belong with the others. A fine player, but has no business doing more than staying where he is at best.

8. Ollie Haas - 89%, 8.38 (-0.08)

Now we're seeing clear evidence that he's on his way out.

9. Tim de Jong - 87%, 8.35 (-0.04)

Doing an impressive job of trying to hang around.

10. Odimos Csollang - 97%, 8.58 (??)

Our first real look at the Romanian Ravager. Serve is getting close, baseline game isn't there yet, but he's got elite athleticism esp. in terms of mobility and absolutely top-shelf mentality. Almost a contender already. Csollang is scary. He's a max-aging guy so his career will be cut short ... but he could be a force of nature for a while. For this year, he seems a clear bet to move up to 7th or 8th at least and join the Tour Finals group.

Top Ten Analysis

Before I look at the previous-year comparisons, it's scary how close 1-6 + 10 are ... particularly when you throw in Jung's dysfunction. Through sheer inertia and being that little bit better, Perez and Wentz should stay at the top given their points advantadge. There could be some real wars in the second week of Slams coming up this season though. A lot of it could be stuff outside of the manager's control - simply who is playing better at the time. .

'65 Avg - 8.573
'66 - 8.532
'67 - 8.526
'68 - 8.539
'69 - 8.564 (+0.025)

I don't think we've reached the overall pinnacle of this generation yet. Only de Jong and Haas are clearly in decline, and they're likely to be replaced soon by younger players who are at least as good. And overall it's still the strongest group since the first year I tracked this four seasons ago ... and fast-approaching that level as it is. In other words, hang onto your hats - this could get real.

One thing is for sure; it is without question the greatest collection of big-serving players - and conversely the weakest group in terms of baseline play for players of this caliber - that I've ever seen.

11. Amrik Kasaravalli - 92%, 8.51 (+0.13)

Amrik has made the traditional elite mark of 5.0 skill but the serve still lags a bit. Might be able to squeeze a bit more out of him this next year, but if so it'll definitely be his final season of improving. Even so, only the Dutch players appear as possible marks for him to pass, and the younger ones are coming up too strong and quickly for that to matter much even if it happens. Kasaravalli will keep fighting of course, but I don't see him making the tour finals even at this point. There's just too much depth in this era.

12. Clavet Moniotte - 89%, 8.39 (-0.03)

Just barely on the downside of his career now. Moniotte is still the best in France hands down, but starting to slip.

14. Fabio Cagide - 96%, 8.48 (+0.15)

Cagide's ready to make his play for breaking into the Top 10 soon. A packed fight to be sure.

16. Ross Vicars - 99%, 8.43 (+0.16)

Tracking right with Csollang and Cagide, except younger and not quite as good. Could still turn out to be the best of the three in the long run.

17. Algot Hakanson - 90%, 8.33 (+0.06)

Still edged up a decent amount last year, but I have to think he's about done growing now, or close if he isn't. Probably hangs out in the teens for another year or two.

19. Acke Kjaerstad - 93%, 8.59 (+0.13)

There's no excuse for Kjaerstad to not have moved up more by now. He's got the abilities of a solid Top-10 player, but just hasn't won quite enough to make that push. The idea of an 8.6 player sitting down this far would have been unthinkable a few years ago.

21. Sushant Chiba - 77%, 8.03 (-0.26)

While I gasp at that number, I must also note that his doubles training has less than a third to go.

23. Pedro Perez - 91%, 8.10 (??)

And now we get into the new faces. Perez #3 here is somewhat short on technique, but fast with above-average power. Good enough to get here, but not good enough to be a real factor in these hyper-competitive times. He wasted some time, though not a huge amount, on doubles.

25. Peter de Boer - 96%, 8.34 (??)

de Boer the Greater possesses a massive serve and nearly untiring endurance (peaked at 4.9 I think). Not particularly special athletically but not embarassing either. Baseline play still needs to improve some. He's going to be a factor, but not a contender I don't think.

26. Mark Smith - 99%, 8.21 (+0.34)

The youngest player at this level, Smith has the serve but not yet the ground strokes. His power and grass proficiency are still the most notable aspects of his game along with the youth.

27. Tommy Fitzpatrick - 98%, 8.29 (+0.29)

Fitzpatrick is the most technically-ready of the upcoming Anilophiles, and appears well-prepped to begin the upward grind against the best players in the world. A couple years from now he's in the Top 10 I'd say, but for the moment all must bide their time and fight for whatever they can get.

28. Joao Narciso - 95%, 8.13 (+0.08)

Narciso is among those who may find it a bit harder to stop the constant merry-go-round. We may have jettisoned enough dead weight up here - with Hart, Chiba, Balzer, etc. soon to go as well - to give him an easier time sticking now though. And still pushing upwards.

29. Jaak Christ - 96%, 8.04 (??)

Christ is a hard-working player who has rampaging SIS (Serve Infatuation Syndrome) like so many others. He's slow, and can't play off the crowd like Vicars can, so it will only carry him so far. I imagine he peaks in the 15-20 range.

30. Helmut Edlund - 95%, 8.11 (+0.06)

The inexorable mathematics off life often mean that a big boost will be followed by a slower one the next year, and that's what happened to our Swedish friend here. He's very much in the same spot as Narciso, fighting to stay up is his future. I've been surprised that he's managed it this long, and he just might succeed ... or not.

31. Nasir Chittoor - 99%, 8.29 (+0.39)

Right there with de Boer, Smith, and Fitzpatrick, Nasir is closing in on being ready technique-wise. Next week is his final challenger, and then he'll be forced to toss those training wheels aside - hopefully for good.

32. John Hart - 82%, 8.27 (-0.26)

Down from #3. But he's still good enough to compete up here if he wanted to. Well over 80% trained in doubles, and 5th in the world in that discipline - that's where his mind is and should be at.

39. Willy Weigl - 96%, 8.03 (+0.10)

Our current 'odd man out' hopes to work his way back up to elite status, but continues to lag just a bit behind in his technical training. Particularly it's the baseline area that just doesn't seem quite up to snuff yet.

49. Shakti Vemireddy - 99%, 8.29 (+0.38)

Vemireddy is ... well, he's very ready (har har har), making up in athleticism what he lacks in all- court proficiency. Most of the problem is that he's trying to write checks his performance can't cash, playing all the big events and then mostly 250s. All of which results in just one Challenger title last year. That won't get it done sir. Earn your spurs first ... or continue to face the possibility of floundering.

65. Rakesh Kayeeda - 99%, 8.00 (+0.34)

Kayeeda was outside the Top 200 at this point a year ago. He uh, seems to be finding his way quite well these days after that hiccup.

93. Ritwik Intodia - 99%, 8.15 (+0.30)

Intodia has cut a more consistent, gradual rise through the rankings but remains the slightly superior player.

124. Lubos Rucklov - 101%, 7.88 (+0.48)

Continuing to unleash the full force of his most-impressive athleticism on the Challenger ranks, Rucklov should do so with increasingly effect this year.

132. Chiang-hui Cheng - 99%, 7.50 (+0.71)

That's ... a big number. Cheng wasn't at his physical peak yet last year, but now he is. To the detriment of the competition at this level.

149. Mike Corey - 100%, 7.07 (+0.73)

Another youngster grasping full possession of his physical gifts, Corey is interestingly focusing even a bit more on skill compared to service than I would. Not a bad idea necessarily, but quite an unusual one. Ranked 900th a year ago, you certainly have to say what he's doing is working right now - Mike is still a teenager.

153. Rene Dechesnay - 93%, 7.31 (??)

Didn't have numbers for him last year (hired mid-season), but the journeyman Dechesnay does seem to be wisely boosting his flagging serve from what I remember. That should continue to pay dividends.

176. Satyagit Guha - 99%, 7.16 (+0.34)

Just feeling those initial, subtlest effects of age an now fully focused on shotmaking techniques for the first time - having recently finished on doubles work.

21(J). Aleksije Konstantinovic - 87%, 4.64 (??)

Most of the juniors are new to their managers in the past year, so we're getting initial numbers on them that'll basically just serve as reference points in the event they stick around.

55(J). Joseph Charriol - 89%, 4.28 (+1.07)

Charriol though is an exception; he's been around a bit longer.

107(J). Kjell Falkeving - 67%, 3.18 (??)

127(J). Eduardo Yroz - 82%, 3.43 (+1.47)

142(J). Raul Almaraz - 88%, 3.64 (+1.09)

194(J). Ambroz Kozubek - 79%, 3.06 (??)

256(J). Anant Koppula - 76%, 3.23 (??)

286(J). Sebastien Bisteri - 76%, 3.01 (??)

304(J). Josh Frobisher - 60%, 2.35 (??)

811(J). Anikitos Khadjikyriakos - 69%, 2.11 (??)

921(J). Thanasis Theodopoulos - 69%, 2.41 (??)

1283(J). Lucas Dufourcq - 59%, 1.97 (??)

09-24-2019, 03:22 AM	#1205
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	2069 Preview 1. Nicolas Perez - 91%, 8.68 (-0.04) Theoretically, Nicolas should basically be at peak and not declining just yet. Either this small dip is in the 'rounding margin', or perhaps it is merely a case of him having had such high technique that training can't keep up with it. I've never had anyone with the levels he's reached, so he may be just beginning the decline phase a bit sooner than I anticipated. Even if so, it should be very slow for at least this year. 2. Harald Wentz - 92%, 8.64 (+0.01) My that's close between these two. Wentz is younger but aging faster, and has gone all-in on the serve (4.5) to detriment of skill (4.8). Also, management is using two different trainers on him (4.7 and 5.0) because ?? Despite all the weirdness, the numbers say a really close battle might be had for the #1 this year. I still favor Perez though. I think he's just had a bad couple of months. 3. Tobias Velilla - 94%, 8.56 (+0.13) Good improvements continue for Velilla, with the same management, approach, and massive serve as Wentz. What he doesn't have is the same athleticism, but he's mostly made up for that now. Maybe I was premature in calling for his decline ... maybe not. It's real close at the top. 4. Calisto Aviles - 93%, 8.63 (+0.08) Wow. Yet another high-serve, relatively low-skill contender pressing in. Aviles is right there knocking on the door as well. 5. Chisulo Mpakati - 92%, 8.62 (+0.02) I still see no good reason for Mpakati not to be back in the thick of things. Just needs to stop being a tool. 6. Il-Sung Jung - 92%, 8.81 (+0.10) I did the math twice here. Guess who's back to being on-paper best player in the world ... and won't play like it because he thinks doubles are cool. 7. Lucas Perez - 91%, 8.39 (+0.05) This supports the idea that Lucas just got hot at times this year. He doesn't belong with the others. A fine player, but has no business doing more than staying where he is at best. 8. Ollie Haas - 89%, 8.38 (-0.08) Now we're seeing clear evidence that he's on his way out. 9. Tim de Jong - 87%, 8.35 (-0.04) Doing an impressive job of trying to hang around. 10. Odimos Csollang - 97%, 8.58 (??) Our first real look at the Romanian Ravager. Serve is getting close, baseline game isn't there yet, but he's got elite athleticism esp. in terms of mobility and absolutely top-shelf mentality. Almost a contender already. Csollang is scary. He's a max-aging guy so his career will be cut short ... but he could be a force of nature for a while. For this year, he seems a clear bet to move up to 7th or 8th at least and join the Tour Finals group. Top Ten Analysis Before I look at the previous-year comparisons, it's scary how close 1-6 + 10 are ... particularly when you throw in Jung's dysfunction. Through sheer inertia and being that little bit better, Perez and Wentz should stay at the top given their points advantadge. There could be some real wars in the second week of Slams coming up this season though. A lot of it could be stuff outside of the manager's control - simply who is playing better at the time. . '65 Avg - 8.573 '66 - 8.532 '67 - 8.526 '68 - 8.539 '69 - 8.564 (+0.025) I don't think we've reached the overall pinnacle of this generation yet. Only de Jong and Haas are clearly in decline, and they're likely to be replaced soon by younger players who are at least as good. And overall it's still the strongest group since the first year I tracked this four seasons ago ... and fast-approaching that level as it is. In other words, hang onto your hats - this could get real. One thing is for sure; it is without question the greatest collection of big-serving players - and conversely the weakest group in terms of baseline play for players of this caliber - that I've ever seen. 11. Amrik Kasaravalli - 92%, 8.51 (+0.13) Amrik has made the traditional elite mark of 5.0 skill but the serve still lags a bit. Might be able to squeeze a bit more out of him this next year, but if so it'll definitely be his final season of improving. Even so, only the Dutch players appear as possible marks for him to pass, and the younger ones are coming up too strong and quickly for that to matter much even if it happens. Kasaravalli will keep fighting of course, but I don't see him making the tour finals even at this point. There's just too much depth in this era. 12. Clavet Moniotte - 89%, 8.39 (-0.03) Just barely on the downside of his career now. Moniotte is still the best in France hands down, but starting to slip. 14. Fabio Cagide - 96%, 8.48 (+0.15) Cagide's ready to make his play for breaking into the Top 10 soon. A packed fight to be sure. 16. Ross Vicars - 99%, 8.43 (+0.16) Tracking right with Csollang and Cagide, except younger and not quite as good. Could still turn out to be the best of the three in the long run. 17. Algot Hakanson - 90%, 8.33 (+0.06) Still edged up a decent amount last year, but I have to think he's about done growing now, or close if he isn't. Probably hangs out in the teens for another year or two. 19. Acke Kjaerstad - 93%, 8.59 (+0.13) There's no excuse for Kjaerstad to not have moved up more by now. He's got the abilities of a solid Top-10 player, but just hasn't won quite enough to make that push. The idea of an 8.6 player sitting down this far would have been unthinkable a few years ago. 21. Sushant Chiba - 77%, 8.03 (-0.26) While I gasp at that number, I must also note that his doubles training has less than a third to go. 23. Pedro Perez - 91%, 8.10 (??) And now we get into the new faces. Perez #3 here is somewhat short on technique, but fast with above-average power. Good enough to get here, but not good enough to be a real factor in these hyper-competitive times. He wasted some time, though not a huge amount, on doubles. 25. Peter de Boer - 96%, 8.34 (??) de Boer the Greater possesses a massive serve and nearly untiring endurance (peaked at 4.9 I think). Not particularly special athletically but not embarassing either. Baseline play still needs to improve some. He's going to be a factor, but not a contender I don't think. 26. Mark Smith - 99%, 8.21 (+0.34) The youngest player at this level, Smith has the serve but not yet the ground strokes. His power and grass proficiency are still the most notable aspects of his game along with the youth. 27. Tommy Fitzpatrick - 98%, 8.29 (+0.29) Fitzpatrick is the most technically-ready of the upcoming Anilophiles, and appears well-prepped to begin the upward grind against the best players in the world. A couple years from now he's in the Top 10 I'd say, but for the moment all must bide their time and fight for whatever they can get. 28. Joao Narciso - 95%, 8.13 (+0.08) Narciso is among those who may find it a bit harder to stop the constant merry-go-round. We may have jettisoned enough dead weight up here - with Hart, Chiba, Balzer, etc. soon to go as well - to give him an easier time sticking now though. And still pushing upwards. 29. Jaak Christ - 96%, 8.04 (??) Christ is a hard-working player who has rampaging SIS (Serve Infatuation Syndrome) like so many others. He's slow, and can't play off the crowd like Vicars can, so it will only carry him so far. I imagine he peaks in the 15-20 range. 30. Helmut Edlund - 95%, 8.11 (+0.06) The inexorable mathematics off life often mean that a big boost will be followed by a slower one the next year, and that's what happened to our Swedish friend here. He's very much in the same spot as Narciso, fighting to stay up is his future. I've been surprised that he's managed it this long, and he just might succeed ... or not. 31. Nasir Chittoor - 99%, 8.29 (+0.39) Right there with de Boer, Smith, and Fitzpatrick, Nasir is closing in on being ready technique-wise. Next week is his final challenger, and then he'll be forced to toss those training wheels aside - hopefully for good. 32. John Hart - 82%, 8.27 (-0.26) Down from #3. But he's still good enough to compete up here if he wanted to. Well over 80% trained in doubles, and 5th in the world in that discipline - that's where his mind is and should be at. 39. Willy Weigl - 96%, 8.03 (+0.10) Our current 'odd man out' hopes to work his way back up to elite status, but continues to lag just a bit behind in his technical training. Particularly it's the baseline area that just doesn't seem quite up to snuff yet. 49. Shakti Vemireddy - 99%, 8.29 (+0.38) Vemireddy is ... well, he's very ready (har har har), making up in athleticism what he lacks in all- court proficiency. Most of the problem is that he's trying to write checks his performance can't cash, playing all the big events and then mostly 250s. All of which results in just one Challenger title last year. That won't get it done sir. Earn your spurs first ... or continue to face the possibility of floundering. 65. Rakesh Kayeeda - 99%, 8.00 (+0.34) Kayeeda was outside the Top 200 at this point a year ago. He uh, seems to be finding his way quite well these days after that hiccup. 93. Ritwik Intodia - 99%, 8.15 (+0.30) Intodia has cut a more consistent, gradual rise through the rankings but remains the slightly superior player. 124. Lubos Rucklov - 101%, 7.88 (+0.48) Continuing to unleash the full force of his most-impressive athleticism on the Challenger ranks, Rucklov should do so with increasingly effect this year. 132. Chiang-hui Cheng - 99%, 7.50 (+0.71) That's ... a big number. Cheng wasn't at his physical peak yet last year, but now he is. To the detriment of the competition at this level. 149. Mike Corey - 100%, 7.07 (+0.73) Another youngster grasping full possession of his physical gifts, Corey is interestingly focusing even a bit more on skill compared to service than I would. Not a bad idea necessarily, but quite an unusual one. Ranked 900th a year ago, you certainly have to say what he's doing is working right now - Mike is still a teenager. 153. Rene Dechesnay - 93%, 7.31 (??) Didn't have numbers for him last year (hired mid-season), but the journeyman Dechesnay does seem to be wisely boosting his flagging serve from what I remember. That should continue to pay dividends. 176. Satyagit Guha - 99%, 7.16 (+0.34) Just feeling those initial, subtlest effects of age an now fully focused on shotmaking techniques for the first time - having recently finished on doubles work. 21(J). Aleksije Konstantinovic - 87%, 4.64 (??) Most of the juniors are new to their managers in the past year, so we're getting initial numbers on them that'll basically just serve as reference points in the event they stick around. 55(J). Joseph Charriol - 89%, 4.28 (+1.07) Charriol though is an exception; he's been around a bit longer. 107(J). Kjell Falkeving - 67%, 3.18 (??) 127(J). Eduardo Yroz - 82%, 3.43 (+1.47) 142(J). Raul Almaraz - 88%, 3.64 (+1.09) 194(J). Ambroz Kozubek - 79%, 3.06 (??) 256(J). Anant Koppula - 76%, 3.23 (??) 286(J). Sebastien Bisteri - 76%, 3.01 (??) 304(J). Josh Frobisher - 60%, 2.35 (??) 811(J). Anikitos Khadjikyriakos - 69%, 2.11 (??) 921(J). Thanasis Theodopoulos - 69%, 2.41 (??) 1283(J). Lucas Dufourcq - 59%, 1.97 (??)