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Brian Swartz · 09-20-2022, 10:21 PM

Time for the end-of-the-year stuff. First up, in terms of counting the years, I'm going to 'break the fourth wall' so to speak. I'm confusing myself and I feel like I'm always potentially off a year one way or the other trying to make the transitions to 'real-life' year counts. So to heck with that.

Last year was Year 99. This coming year, about to begin is Year 100. And so on. Also, I'm just going to use the main rating for players, not the 'weighted' one I mentioned in the other thread (that also takes into account surface preferences and home-advantage factors). It's not enough different that it has a benefit to outweigh the confusion of two numbers, IMO.

Year 100 Top Ten Rankings

Same players we've been talking about, and mostly in the same order. ZZZZzzzzz ...

1. Renke Cananis (26, DEU, 91%, 9.25) - 13,640

Cananis has improved his rally abilities enough to push to clear best player in the world. This far above 9 on the rating scale is no small feat. He's still below the typical world-class level in rallies, but the huge serve, overall power, and impregnable mental capabilities have been enough for him to narrowly take over the #1 spot again, even in light of sometimes suboptimal management. Cananis stands with more Tour Finals won (4) than Slams (3), which is just all categories of weird. Nonetheless, he figures to be at or close to his peak level ... and it's an impressively high level indeed.

2. Leon Polychroniadis (26, GRC, 92%, 9.13) - 13,305

Polychroniadis has lost the last three matchups with Cananis, and now trails 25-19 in their head-to-head. Still he is right there close behind, and several months younger. Leon still has the best technical skills in the sport, impeccable management from Bambic, far and away the top-ranked manager in this world, and significantly better endurance than his German rival as well. I have to think the Greek will be the last man standing. He has no Tour Finals to his credit, but twice as many Slams (6), and the same number of Masters (11). Time spent at #1 is currently 70 weeks, to Cananis's 59.

This is rare pleasure of a spectacle; enjoy it while you can. A true rivalry between a pair of very worth champions. Many eras don't have a player as good as either one of these stalwarts.

3. Themis Xanthos (27, CYP, 91%, 8.87) - 8.280

A considerable drop to the merely outstanding Xanthos, winner of Indian Wells and finalist as the Tour Finals and Wimbledon. He gets a word in edgewise every now and then but is still clearly in the shadow of the power couple.

4. Ben Faille (21, FRA, 99%, 9.14) - 6,340

The third wheel, Faille is an anomaly. One just doesn't see a player essentially at physical peak reach this level. Quite possibly the most dedicated/durable player in the history of tennis, Ben reached the final at Roland Garros where he came so very close to winning, and also was runner-up at Miami. This year he begins his chase of the top two in earnest. It's already a Big Three, it's just not obvious yet to the casual observer.

He's not yet good enough to take the throne, but I expect this year Faille will dramatically narrow the points gap, get his first big trophies - multiple - and generally begin to make a major nuisance of himself as a serious rival.

5. Alexander Reimann (27, DEU, 89%, 8.79) - 6,310

The writing's on the wall for Reimann, and he clearly has had no problem reading it; an accelerated decline is expected as it seems the no. 2 German has decided to go doubles sooner than most top players do. He's still good enough to hang around for another couple of years, but it's also understandable that he wants to move on and let the titans have their fun.

6. Toni Bardales (25, ESP, 92%, 8.66) - 5,440

Bardales, the resident clay specialist of the top players, had an up-and-down year in which he amusingly didn't actually do all that well on clay. Finalist at Madrid ... but his second-best showing was a semifinal in Shanghai on hardcourt. The gap appears to just be too large for his clay abilities to help all that much. Hanging out around the middle of the first page seems to be his ceiling.

7. Jochen Weigle (25, SUI, 94%, 8.77) - 5,150

I initially over-estimated Weigle ... or perhaps I underestimated the competition. The serve and athleticism aren't bad by any stretch, but just not good enough in this era. I expect mostly treading water here; 4th is probably the ceiling and maybe 5th for Jochen. He'll pass some players up who are older eventually, but others are coming up as well, and with the longevity and excellence of Cananis and Polychroniadis combined with Faille eventually taking over, there's just not going to be a lot of room for upward mobility.

An excellent player, but the competition is too tough.

8. Solitris Papadias (26, GRC, 90%, 8.72) - 4,540

Somewhat weak physically and definitely weak mentally, Papadias sits here with 5.2 skill, 4.2 serve, outstanding marks ... and yet you can completely understand why he's ranked #8. 5th was his high, and now the slow decline has begun for the 'other Greek'.

9. Ale Ballok (24, ITA, 94%, 8.53) - 3,770

Ballok will eventually move up a little I think, but he's not yet ready. Big serve, but weak mentally and doesn't have the baseline technique needed.

10. Eddy Copperfield (27, AUS, 89%, 8.67) - 3,070

It's been musical chairs of a sort for this final spot. Copperfield's as good a candidate for it as any right now, hitting the situation of not quite good enough to do better, but too good for anyone to push out the way.

Summary

The average rating here is 8.853. That's just scary. I would say this figures to be the peak year for this wave. Cananis and Xanthos will struggle to be as good a year from now as they are, Copperfield and Reimann are clearly on their way down, and Papadias starting to fade as well. I don't expect major changes to happen just yet, more that the cracks will start to show. The high playing level of this group will allow them to hold out longer than usual.

09-20-2022, 10:21 PM	#1287
Brian Swartz Grizzled Veteran Join Date: May 2006	Time for the end-of-the-year stuff. First up, in terms of counting the years, I'm going to 'break the fourth wall' so to speak. I'm confusing myself and I feel like I'm always potentially off a year one way or the other trying to make the transitions to 'real-life' year counts. So to heck with that. Last year was Year 99. This coming year, about to begin is Year 100. And so on. Also, I'm just going to use the main rating for players, not the 'weighted' one I mentioned in the other thread (that also takes into account surface preferences and home-advantage factors). It's not enough different that it has a benefit to outweigh the confusion of two numbers, IMO. Year 100 Top Ten Rankings Same players we've been talking about, and mostly in the same order. ZZZZzzzzz ... 1. Renke Cananis (26, DEU, 91%, 9.25) - 13,640 Cananis has improved his rally abilities enough to push to clear best player in the world. This far above 9 on the rating scale is no small feat. He's still below the typical world-class level in rallies, but the huge serve, overall power, and impregnable mental capabilities have been enough for him to narrowly take over the #1 spot again, even in light of sometimes suboptimal management. Cananis stands with more Tour Finals won (4) than Slams (3), which is just all categories of weird. Nonetheless, he figures to be at or close to his peak level ... and it's an impressively high level indeed. 2. Leon Polychroniadis (26, GRC, 92%, 9.13) - 13,305 Polychroniadis has lost the last three matchups with Cananis, and now trails 25-19 in their head-to-head. Still he is right there close behind, and several months younger. Leon still has the best technical skills in the sport, impeccable management from Bambic, far and away the top-ranked manager in this world, and significantly better endurance than his German rival as well. I have to think the Greek will be the last man standing. He has no Tour Finals to his credit, but twice as many Slams (6), and the same number of Masters (11). Time spent at #1 is currently 70 weeks, to Cananis's 59. This is rare pleasure of a spectacle; enjoy it while you can. A true rivalry between a pair of very worth champions. Many eras don't have a player as good as either one of these stalwarts. 3. Themis Xanthos (27, CYP, 91%, 8.87) - 8.280 A considerable drop to the merely outstanding Xanthos, winner of Indian Wells and finalist as the Tour Finals and Wimbledon. He gets a word in edgewise every now and then but is still clearly in the shadow of the power couple. 4. Ben Faille (21, FRA, 99%, 9.14) - 6,340 The third wheel, Faille is an anomaly. One just doesn't see a player essentially at physical peak reach this level. Quite possibly the most dedicated/durable player in the history of tennis, Ben reached the final at Roland Garros where he came so very close to winning, and also was runner-up at Miami. This year he begins his chase of the top two in earnest. It's already a Big Three, it's just not obvious yet to the casual observer. He's not yet good enough to take the throne, but I expect this year Faille will dramatically narrow the points gap, get his first big trophies - multiple - and generally begin to make a major nuisance of himself as a serious rival. 5. Alexander Reimann (27, DEU, 89%, 8.79) - 6,310 The writing's on the wall for Reimann, and he clearly has had no problem reading it; an accelerated decline is expected as it seems the no. 2 German has decided to go doubles sooner than most top players do. He's still good enough to hang around for another couple of years, but it's also understandable that he wants to move on and let the titans have their fun. 6. Toni Bardales (25, ESP, 92%, 8.66) - 5,440 Bardales, the resident clay specialist of the top players, had an up-and-down year in which he amusingly didn't actually do all that well on clay. Finalist at Madrid ... but his second-best showing was a semifinal in Shanghai on hardcourt. The gap appears to just be too large for his clay abilities to help all that much. Hanging out around the middle of the first page seems to be his ceiling. 7. Jochen Weigle (25, SUI, 94%, 8.77) - 5,150 I initially over-estimated Weigle ... or perhaps I underestimated the competition. The serve and athleticism aren't bad by any stretch, but just not good enough in this era. I expect mostly treading water here; 4th is probably the ceiling and maybe 5th for Jochen. He'll pass some players up who are older eventually, but others are coming up as well, and with the longevity and excellence of Cananis and Polychroniadis combined with Faille eventually taking over, there's just not going to be a lot of room for upward mobility. An excellent player, but the competition is too tough. 8. Solitris Papadias (26, GRC, 90%, 8.72) - 4,540 Somewhat weak physically and definitely weak mentally, Papadias sits here with 5.2 skill, 4.2 serve, outstanding marks ... and yet you can completely understand why he's ranked #8. 5th was his high, and now the slow decline has begun for the 'other Greek'. 9. Ale Ballok (24, ITA, 94%, 8.53) - 3,770 Ballok will eventually move up a little I think, but he's not yet ready. Big serve, but weak mentally and doesn't have the baseline technique needed. 10. Eddy Copperfield (27, AUS, 89%, 8.67) - 3,070 It's been musical chairs of a sort for this final spot. Copperfield's as good a candidate for it as any right now, hitting the situation of not quite good enough to do better, but too good for anyone to push out the way. Summary The average rating here is 8.853. That's just scary. I would say this figures to be the peak year for this wave. Cananis and Xanthos will struggle to be as good a year from now as they are, Copperfield and Reimann are clearly on their way down, and Papadias starting to fade as well. I don't expect major changes to happen just yet, more that the cracks will start to show. The high playing level of this group will allow them to hold out longer than usual.